College Basketball Betting Picks for Sunday 11/12/23: A Pair of Big 12 Teams to Fade
The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.
Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
College Basketball Best Bets
Idaho State Bengals at Iowa State Cyclones
Idaho State +28.5 (-110)
You can't stop the Idaho State Bengals; you can only hope to contain them.
I'm kidding, of course. The Bengals are just 285th in KenPom's projected efficiency rankings, and they're 294th in Bart Torvik's rankings. They're likely not a tournament team in 2023, but they could be getting too many points in this early-season tune-up.
At the very least, the Iowa State Cyclones aren't expected to be an offensive juggernaut. They're just 65th in KenPom's projected offensive efficiency rankings, and they rank 287th in tempo. These points are more valuable at the glacial pace the 'Clones play.
In some ways, Idaho State is also well-equipped to cover these massive spreads. They are ranked 45th in three-point defense since the start of last year, per Bart Torvik.
That's likely why, across the board, this game is showing betting value to many. Bart Torvik has this spread at 19.6 points, numberFire's model projects a 21.6-point margin, and my colleague Brandon Gdula's NCAA model has this spread at 20.0 points. That's enough aligned experts to take the pick.
Howard Bison at James Madison Dukes
Under 168.5 (-110)
This lofty total between two of the nation's fastest teams might just a bit too high.
According to KenPom, the James Madison Dukes play at the seventh-fastest pace in Division 1, and the Howard Bison play at the eighth-fastest. That quick research would lead most to an over, but this total is elevated for two teams who ultimately struggle in the same area: shooting threes.
Since the start of 2022, JMU is just 175th in three-point efficiency, and Howard is an ugly 215th. The pace here screams over, but if triples aren't falling, it'll be tough to encroach 170 points.
Most sources are aligned on a nerve-wracking under here. Bart Torvik expects 166.0 total points, numberFire's model expects 152.5 points at a median, and Gdula's model is expecting 158.0 points.
It's worth noting that the spread is 11.5 points here because James Madison (107th in defensive efficiency at KenPom) is a much better defensive group, and nF has an 18.7-point projected margin. Blowouts can bring the action to a screeching halt late, so that's another way this game can fall short of its total.
Gardner Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Baylor Bears
Gardner Webb +23.5 (-110)
Here's another Big 12 club that might be laying too many points at home.
The 2021 national champion Baylor Bears are 10th in KenPom, so they're expected to be in the running again for a title this season. However, it'll be interesting to see if they've worked on their defense from a year ago.
Since the start of 2022, Baylor ranks 300th in two-point defense and 192nd in three-point defense, according to Bart Torvik. They're just 57th in BT's overall defensive efficiency to start this particular season.
On offense, Gardner Webb is 254th in terms of perimeter efficiency in that same period, but they can score inside (52nd in 2PT FG efficiency). A few mistakes or key baskets inside -- especially as this one is over late -- could be the difference within a lofty spread.
Here's another game where the models are aligned. Bart Torvik has the projected difference at 16.2 points, numberFire's model has it at just 12.7 points, and Gdula's model is expecting a 16.5-point margin.
Baylor's offensive upside could make this one a bit scary, but it seems to be the right move to take the 'dog against the spread.
Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.