Celtics vs. Pacers: Betting Picks, Props, and Prediction for Game 4

If the Indiana Pacers do end up losing this series as expected, Game 3 will haunt them for some time to come.

Indiana had an eight-point lead over the Boston Celtics with 2:30 remaining and ended up losing, 114-111. The Eastern Conference's best squad all season is now one win away from making it official and heading back to their second NBA Finals in three years.

With Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) likely out of the lineup again, what type of effort can the Pacers summon to try and stave off eliminate at home in Game 4?

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Celtics-Pacers Betting Odds

Date and Time: Monday, May 27th at 8:00 p.m. EST

Spread: Celtics -8.0 (-108)

Total: 222.5

Moneyline:

• Celtics: -335
• Pacers: +270

Celtics-Pacers Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

• Celtics:
  • nERD: 80.8 (1st)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 122.0 (1st)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.2 (2nd)
  • Pace: 97.7 (19th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 41-36-5
• Pacers:
  • nERD: 56.3 (14th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 120.1 (2nd)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 117.9 (24th)
  • Pace: 102.1 (2nd)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 44-35-3

Celtics vs. Pacers Best Bet

Pacers +8 (-112)

As one of this Boston Celtics group's most arduous defenders, Game 3 showed why many feel they're overrated or lucky. When there is a margin to do so, they always seem to let go of the rope.

Despite Indiana missing Haliburton, the C's farted around to trail by double digits in the fourth quarter to a squad that had a -3.9 net rating in 13 games that their star point guard missed during the regular season. Boston was able to come back and win, taking a firm 3-0 lead in this series. That makes this game in Indiana largely meaningless -- and a dangerous proposition for Boston's fans.

There's no doubt that the Celtics -- still holding a playoff-best +11.4 net rating with no other mark above +7.0 -- are the best team remaining in the dance. They've even done this without Kristaps Porzingis healthy for most of these contests. There's simply a motivation difference between these two squads, so I'll happily take the points while not ruling out Pacers ML (+270) entirely.

Boston will always let up a path for their opponents: the three-ball. They've allowed the eighth-most attempts per game in the playoffs, and Indiana's true-shooting percentage (60.0%) trails only the C's of any postseason team this year. They can knock down threes in bunches -- especially with Andrew Nembhard (65.4% TS% in the playoffs) and Ben Sheppard (59.9%) getting additional looks in Hali's stead.

Likely factoring in Indiana's exceptional 7-0 against-the-spread (ATS) record at home this postseason, numberFire (1.3 points), DRatings (1.0), and Massey Ratings (3.9) all have this spread significantly shorter than eight points.

Celtics vs. Pacers Player Prop to Target

Aaron Nesmith Over 16.5 Points and Rebounds (+100)

A look at the box score without minutes played would lead you to believe Aaron Nesmith was benched in Game 3, but he logged 34 minutes.

Nesmith had a bizarre night offensively where he took just four shots, totaling just four points and five rebounds despite the hefty on-court role. I'm expecting more from him in Game 4 without much concern he'll underproduce his way off the floor; Nesmith leads all regular Pacers starters in defensive win shares (-0.66) in the series so far.

With Haliburton off the floor this postseason, Nesmith has produced 19.3 points and 4.9 rebounds per 36 minutes with Saturday's stinker included. He's seen the largest usage rate increase overall in that floor condition (5.8 percentage points), per RotoGrinders' Court IQ, so Game 3's outcome was nothing but shocking.

Never too prone to recency bias, numberFire's projections have Nesmith projected for 13.0 points and 5.1 rebounds on Monday. This line seems to be an overreaction to what can only be described as an odd blip on the radar.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.