Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Championship Race at Phoenix

All season long, the talk centered around how tough Team Penske would be to beat at Phoenix.

But now, with no Penske cars in the final, it's anybody's game.

With that said, my model does pinpoint one driver as being the favorite.

All four of Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, William Byron, and Kyle Larson figure to be strong this weekend. But my model is giving the edge to a driver who went through a lull over the summer but clinched his spot in this race with a bang this past week in Martinsville.

Let's start there, laying out my model's sims for who will win the championship. Then, we can dig into sims for the race and my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Predictions

NASCAR Predictions for Phoenix

NASCAR Betting Picks for Phoenix

William Byron to Win the Race (+440)

If you want to bet Byron +270 to win the championship -- thereby avoiding Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and others -- you can. I've got value there, too. But once you give Byron and the rest the typical bump championship contenders get, he's a value to win the race.

Byron was the dominant car last week, leading 304 laps and ending Blaney's run of dominance at Martinsville. He has been fast on flatter tracks all year long with a win in Iowa plus top-fives in New Hampshire and Nashville. He also led 83 laps in the spring race at Phoenix.

This team had a lull over the summer, but they've had tons of dominant races this year, many of which didn't result in wins. It shows that they've got gobs of upside, though, and they'll need that to win here. I'm willing to bank on Byron doing it again, given how high the model is on him relative to the market.

Austin Cindric to Finish Top 10 (+210)

Last week at Martinsville, Austin Cindric had his fourth top-10 average running position in eight races on shorter, flatter tracks this year. It didn't result in a top-10 finish, but I think that's allowing us to get him at a discount.

We've seen the same pattern a bunch of times with Cindric: he runs well early only to fade late. It's a concern and could mean the car just gets worse as the race goes along. Personally, I think it's more of an indicator of positive regression coming his way.

One of those quality races was in Phoenix where he had a 12th-place average running position before ultimately finishing 19th. We know how good Penske cars are at this track, and we've seen Cindric have that pace at other flat tracks, as well. As a result, I agree with the model that Cindric's worth a bet at just +210.

Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 10 (+310)

It's very possible RFK Racing has turned the page to next year with nothing to race for in 2025. They're a savvy organization, and that's likely the proper move. I just have a hard time passing up Brad Keselowski at such long odds.

Some of Keselowski's best runs this year have come on tracks like Phoenix. At Iowa, he had a chance to win, ultimately finishing third with a fourth-place average running position. He was also ninth at Richmond, and he had a 15th-place average running position in Gateway.

New Hampshire and Martinsville were rougher, lending credence to the theory that they're focusing on 2026. I just have enough faith in Keselowski as a driver to think he could still eek out a top-10 even with that being true.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+1300)

This will be Daniel Suarez's final race with Trackhouse Racing as he departs to make way for Connor Zilisch next year. The "checked out" concerns are elevated as a result, but this is a good spot for Suarez to go out on a high note.

In seven Next-Gen Phoenix races, Suarez has two top-10s, an 11th, and a 13th. It's generally a good track for him.

We saw that same pace over the summer in Richmond. There, Suarez had an eighth-place average running position and finished seventh. He wasn't as strong in other flat tracks during the playoffs, but incidents tainted his finishes in some of them.

As a result, I have Suarez at 19.2% to finish top 10, which could very well be too high once you consider his impending departure. But I also think that 7.1% implied odds is too low, so I'm willing to have him on my betslip regardless.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.