START YOUR OWN WINNING STREAK

Player Image
SportsBookLogo
Chevrons Texture
Boxing

Best Bets and Predictions for Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury 2

Subscribe to our newsletter

Best Bets and Predictions for Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury 2

Outside of -- ironically enough -- a Jake Paul fight, boxing doesn't get bigger in 2024 than this.

Two of the brightest stars in heavyweight boxing, Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury, finally met in May in what turned into an amazing, competitive fight.

Regardless of who won, both had a rematch clause, so we sort of knew we'd see the second fight. This Saturday from the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Usyk vs. Fury 2 will either end this series with a G.O.A.T. nominee or produce a trilogy between two of the greatest to ever step in the ring.

What happened in the first fight, and how can we translate that to correctly betting the second bout?

Who Won Usyk vs. Fury 1?

A rare opportunity to unify promotional heavyweight belts happened in May as Oleksandr Usyk (22-0; 14 KOs) and Tyson Fury (34-1-1; 24 KOs) battled to settle who was the "Baddest Man on the Planet".

Fury, also known as England's "Gypsy King", was a short -126 favorite over Ukraine's Usyk heading into the fight. The fight was -196 to go the distance and did just that.

Scorecards were tight headed into the ninth round -- until Usyk dropped Fury with a knockdown that, with proper refereeing, might have resulted in a TKO victory for the underdog. However, the fight wasn't stopped, and Fury recollected himself to even win the final round on all three cards.

The official cards read 115-112 Usyk, 114-113 Usyk, and 114-113 Fury to hand Oleksandr Usyk the win via split decision -- and the undisputed WBA, WBC, and WBO titles.

Through an uncredentialed lens of a combat sports fan, I scored the fight 116-111 in favor of Usyk and thought Fury was given some extreme benefit of the doubt in early rounds as the favorite.

How will the rematch go?

Usyk vs Fury 2: Betting Picks for the Rematch

Fury to Win After Round 6 (+195)
Fury by Decision or Points (+410)

I love huge boxing fights. They're few and far between these days, but I'm left with the same taste in my mouth after nearly all of them.

Inexplicable judging decisions rule the day. Just one media scorecard gave Katie Taylor the win in November over Amanda Serrano, yet two judges saw the Irish underdog as the winner. It's something to note before betting any event.

According to CompuBox, Usyk outlanded Fury by 13 punches with a punching accuracy 11.1 percentage points higher:

Total Punches (Body Landed)
Total Land Rate (%)
Total Jabs (Body Landed)
Jab Land Rate (%)
Power Punches (Body Landed)
Power Punch Land Rate (%)
Oleksandr Usyk170 (70)/40741.8%48 (29) of 14732.7%122 (41) of 26046.9%
Tyson Fury157 (46)/49631.7%62 (6) of 28621.7%%95 (40) of 21045.2%

Usyk topped Fury in power punches for 9 of 12 rounds, and yet -- somehow -- the fight went to a split decision.

Entering the rematch, I see that as a huge edge for Fury. He'll be able to make adjustments that we already saw play out a bit in their first fight, leaning on volume to edge ahead on the cards until the Round 9 knockdown.

Fury enters this fight at 36 years old to Usyk's 37. With both on the wrong side of 30, Fury's size is much more transitive to a rematch than Usyk's speed, which he leaned on in the first fight. It was ultimately still fairly close even with the most convincing moment in the Ukranian's direction.

In lieu of the moneyline, I'm trusting Usyk's golden defense and durability and betting Fury for some form of a win in the latter half of the fight, which could come via late (T)KO or decision. Usyk has never been knocked down as a pro, so a quick knockout would be stunning. Of course, he's never lost, either.

With that said, "The Cat" visibly slowed down in the fight due to an accumulation of body blows at range. That's a concern for a potential late finish from "The Gypsy King", who has a 3-0 record -- all by knockout -- in rematches.

However, Usyk is still likely around for the long haul without proof he can be wobbled. I'm adding a sprinkle on the win to come via decision. This fight is -148 to go the distance, and there are plenty of reasons to believe the larger Englishman can win it.

On at least one scorecard, Fury won 8 out of 12 rounds. That means it was close enough to argue that many in his direction. It's hard to not favor the longer, younger fighter with a higher activity rate -- especially when even a controversial victory would inevitably set up the trilogy of a lifetime between these legends.


New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest boxing odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Want more stories like this?

Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news.

Newsletter Signup
Newsletter Signup