Australian Open Quarterfinals Betting Guide: Tuesday 1/23/24

The Australian Open is into the second week, and we should be treated to some fantastic matches in the coming days.

What better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which quarterfinals matches could have the most betting value on Tuesday.

Australian Open Best Bets

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev -3.5 Games (-128)

While Daniil Medvedev hasn't had the smoothest tournament entering these quarterfinals, he's no stranger to deep runs at the Australian Open and US Open as one of the world's top players on hard courts. Between the two Slams, he's made the finals five times, with his crowning achievement being a 2021 US Open title over Novak Djokovic.

Over the last 52 weeks, Medvedev has gone 44-10 on the surface, owning the ATP Tour's third-best hard courts win percentage over that span (81.5%). He's 10-6 against top-10 opponents during this stretch, too, so it's not like he's wilted against elite competition.

Hubert Hurkacz has one of the biggest serves in the business, owning a massive 17.0% ace rate over the last 52 weeks, per Tennis Abstract, which could certainly prove troublesome for Medvedev. The Polish player also leads their head-to-head 3-2, winning each of their last two matches, though it's worth noting that they last played in 2022.

On paper, Hurkacz has enjoyed a fairly easy draw to get here, with three of his four opponents being ranked outside the top 100. Still, he's had to endure at least one tiebreak in every match, and he was taken five sets in the second round by qualifier Jakub Mensik.

He also hasn't had nearly as much success as Medvedev in Grand Slams. This is Hurkacz's first major quarterfinals appearance since he made the 2021 Wimbledon semis, and he's otherwise never made it past the fourth round until this tournament.

With neither player showing an obvious edge in current form, this looks like a spot to back the player with the superior history at majors on his favorite surface. Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings see Medvedev winning this match 72.8% of the time, and this is a modest spread for the Russian to cover.

Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Over 37.5 Total Match Games (-110)

Carlos Alcaraz has mostly dominated his four matches, dropping just a single set all tournament. He most recently crushed Miomir Kecmanovic 6-4, 6-4, 6-0 in the last round. However, he's yet to face a seeded opponent, so Alexander Zverev represents his first real test.

Unfortunately for the German, Zverev isn't nearly as well-rested as his opponent. Outside of a fairly routine straight-sets win in the third round, Zverev has been pushed in his other three matches, which includes two five-setters going past the four-hour mark.

These two faced off at least year's US Open, and Alcaraz won without much trouble in straight sets (6-3, 6-2, 6-4). But fatigue was likely a factor for Zverev after a grueling five-setter against Jannik Sinner that went 4 hours and 41 minutes.

While the German isn't exactly fresh this time around after going five sets with Cameron Norrie, he stated after the match that he's not "completely dead" and "physically exhausted" like he was at that US Open and expects the rematch "to be very different."

Additionally, Zverev did get some revenge by besting Alcaraz in the ATP Finals to finish his 2023 campaign, and he carries an overall 4-3 edge in their head-to-head.

According to Tennis Abstract, Alcaraz is being overvalued as a -500 favorite (83.3% implied odds), with their numbers projecting a 65.7% win probability. While that technically suggests there's value in backing Zverev as a +380 underdog, the sizable gap in court time makes me wary of picking the straight-up upset.

That being said, I see this one being far more competitive than their US Open encounter and expect Zverev to pick up at least a set, pushing this over 37.5 match games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.