AFC Championship Game Betting Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens

This Sunday afternoon, get ready for an AFC Championship of epic proportions.

Here for a sixth straight season, the Kansas City Chiefs will hit the road for a clash against the Baltimore Ravens. Through that span, this will be KC's first time traveling for the AFC title game. Pertaining to Baltimore, they have not played for the conference title since 2012-13.

As of Wednesday, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Ravens as a 3.5-point favorite versus the defending champs.

Obviously, the winner here will punch their ticket to "Fabulous" Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII. With a trip to the big game on the line, let us dive into the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook for the upcoming meeting in Maryland.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

AFC Championship Game: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

• Kansas City: +166
• Baltimore: -198

Total: 44.5

Naturally, there are many salacious storylines to run through for the 2023-24 AFC Championship Game.

Off top, there is dueling dynamic quarterbacks in reigning-MVP Patrick Mahomes and the league's next MVP in Lamar Jackson. Along with Aaron Rodgers, the participating signal-callers are the only active players to have been named AP Most Valuable Player.

From there, we see a Kansas City team that has been in the conference title game every year since 2018 going up against a franchise that has not qualified for this round in over a decade. However, the Ravens and Chiefs have combined for four Super Bowl wins this millennium, earning two Lombardi Trophies each during that stretch.

Within the matchup, these two superstar quarterbacks will be taking on the No. 1 and 2 scoring defenses. Baltimore showcased the stingiest defensive unit in the NFL by surrendering only 16.5 points per game (PPG). Kansas City was right behind them -- the Chiefs suffocated opponents into just 17.3 PPG through the regular season.

As of Tuesday evening, FanDuel Sportsbook had received more support for KC in the moneyline market, while Baltimore has a narrow edge in total tickets and handle against the spread (ATS).

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens: Best Bets

Read here for this game's top player props.

Ravens -3.5 (-115)

Sure, betting against the almighty Mahomes should always come with a disclaimer, but I really do think the Chiefs are overmatched on the road this Sunday.

Kansas City has experienced an offensive drop in 2023. Whether due to previous OC Eric Bieniemy departing for Washington in the offseason or the fact that KC led the NFL drops (44) this past year, the Chiefs' 21.8 PPG is their lowest since Mahomes took over as starting quarterback.

With that in mind, I believe Kansas City's offensive woes may finally catch up to them in "Charm City." The Ravens have been stifling on defense this year -- especially against the pass. Baltimore gave up just 5.9 yards per passing attempt in 2023, which was tied for the best rate in the league. Additionally, the Flock swiped 18 interceptions (tied-third). However, Pro-Bowl corner Marlon Humphrey (calf) is nursing a lower-body ailment, and he remains questionable for this one.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Sunday's weather at the mouth of the Patapsco River -- particularly in the first half -- is forecasted to be wet. With a 35% chance of rain at kickoff, I think those natural conditions will serve more as a detriment to the Chiefs than to a Ravens squad that ended the regular season with the league's lowest pass rate.

At numberFire, the game projections for this contest yield a 25.93-21.07 estimated score in favor of Baltimore. With that model, the Ravens have a winning differential of 4.86 points, which provides greater than a point of cushion against the line of Baltimore -3.5 (-115).

Under 44.5 (-110)

I have the utmost respect for the two superstar quarterbacks featured in this year's AFC Championship Game, but I genuinely think the defenses on hand are built to take over this contest -- especially in less-than-ideal playing conditions.

Through the recent regular season, KC and Baltimore combined to surrender a mere 33.8 PPG. Alarmingly, both defenses here have talent in all three levels. The Chiefs are solid behind defensive tackle Chris Jones and linebacker Nick Bolton. From there, cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and L'Jarius Sneed are likely the NFL's best tandem on the outside -- the two accumulated a total of 21 passes defended (PD) in 2023.

On the other side, the Flock will be looking to give Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice all kinds of fits. A dynamic linebacking corps led by Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen certainly makes life easier for Baltimore. Smith and Queen logged 291 total tackles in 2023 -- the most of any pair of teammates this season. On the back end, safety Kyle Hamilton is one of the most complete defensive backs in the NFL, showing three sacks, four picks and 13 PD.

Maybe most importantly, Mahomes will first have to keep an eye out for Baltimore's veteran pass-rushing symphony of Justin Madubuike (13 sacks), Jadeveon Clowney (9.5 sacks) and Kyle Van Noy (9 sacks) -- those three are a massive reason (literally and figuratively) why the Ravens paced the entire league this year with 60 quarterback sacks.

I have echoed this sentiment all week -- I am ready for an instant classic in this showdown between hyper-talented football teams. Still, that does not mean I am assuming the quarterbacks and offenses have tons of success in soggy conditions. Of course, they say "defense wins championships," and I see that being on full display this weekend in Maryland -- give me under 44.5 points (-110).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.