5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 7/20/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals

Under 8.0 Runs (-115)

A pitcher's duel could be on the way from Nationals Park this afternoon.

The home Washington Nationals send out their ace in search of a series win. MacKenzie Gore has dominated this year to the tune of a 3.15 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 30.5% strikeout rate, and there has to be a little added incentive to shove against a San Diego Padres club that dealt him. The Friars' .728 OPS against lefties in the last 30 days (18th in MLB) isn't too scary.

San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta, whose 3.36 SIERA isn't a surprise as he's building a third straight year below 3.50. Washington is 18th over the last month in OPS (.705) against his split.

Pivetta's July starts have featured 4.67 total runs per game. Opposing teams haven't posted more than four runs against the Nats in a Gore start since April. These two have been under machines when the other side complies, and I've got a hunch it does today.

MacKenzie Gore Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-154)

I know the Padres aren't the best matchup for Ks, but a guy with the third-highest swinging-strike rate in baseball (14.2%) should probably never have a line this low.

San Diego's 19.3% K rate has gotten even lower (17.0%) over the last 30 days as they've tumbled into the bottom half of production in a left-handed split. They haven't faced many Gores, though. He's topped this line in 17 of 18 starts this season.

Particularly, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado both have a K rate of at least 33.5% against sliders, which is Gore's best putaway pitch (28.6% K). The dynamic is a bit different from a southpaw, but Gore did fan six Padres in 6.0 innings earlier this season.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 6.69 median strikeouts from Mackenzie on Sunday. On that alone, we'd set this line closer to -392.

Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Over 4.5 Runs (-113)

Death, taxes, and yours truly targeting Aaron Civale.

Civale's arguably in the worst form of a full-time starter for the Chicago White Sox, who traded for him in hopes a change of scenery would help. It's just gotten worse. The right-hander has a 5.86 SIERA and minuscule 12.1% K rate with Chicago. He's given up at least four earned in three of his last four starts.

That's before, if Civale struggles, turning things to a Pale Hose 'pen with MLB's 28th-ranked SIERA (4.10) over the last 30 days.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' .666 team OPS against right-handers in the same period isn't amazing, but they can get after this pitching staff in favorable conditions. Warm, humid temperatures also feature double-digit winds blowing out to left field.

Andrew McCutchen to Hit a Home Run (+630)

That sort of wind makes a right-handed bat an appealing target. Not only is Andrew McCutchen a good one, but he's in a great buy-low spot after some rotten luck recently.

McCutchen's 30-day splits against righties are poor. He's managed just a .518 OPS and .015 ISO. However, his flyball (32.1%) and hard-hit (39.6%) rates in these 74 plate appearances (PAs) are much better.

Civale can help. He's letting up a 53.1% flyball rate and 35.1% hard-hit rate to right-handed bats, resulting in 1.69 HR/9 allowed.

Cutch hasn't gone deep since June 19th, so this is a wild dart, but a right-handed Bucco has all they could ask for to round the bases on Sunday. Our projections expect 0.19 median home runs from the outfielder in this matchup, implying closer to +478 odds for one if correct.

Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs

Red Sox -0.5 in First 5 Innings (-114)

Looking to avoid a sweep, the Boston Red Sox will turn to their stopper today.

Garrett Crochet dazzled with a complete game shutout (and 12 Ks) before the break, adding to a sparkling 2.87 SIERA as the lone guy in touch with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young odds race. He'll benefit from a Chicago Cubs order that, flipped around against southpaws, isn't nearly as strong. Their .747 OPS against them in the last 30 days is below the league average.

Meanwhile, Boston should be able to scratch across a run or two against Cade Horton. Horton has allowed 14 earned in his last four starts, and he ranks 40th percentile or worse in average exit velocity (89.9), barrel rate (12.3%), and hard-hit rate (44.5%) allowed. The Sox have an .815 OPS (8th in MLB) against righties in the past month.

Boston's moneyline is -136, but I get better odds for them to be ahead after five and dodge their shaky bullpen (4.03 SIERA in the last 30 days)? We take those.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.