5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 7/19/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers

Over 8.5 Runs (-105)

These teams greeted us out of the All-Star break with just two runs, but more are on the way with these two starters.

It's hard to be sold on the Detroit Tigers bouncing back from their bagel against Kumar Rocker. The righty's 6.39 ERA is pretty well-supported by a 5.89 xERA, and he's coughed up 1.69 HR/9 this season. Detroit still has MLB's sixth-best team OPS in Rocker's split over the last 30 days (.799).

The Texas Rangers have also climbed from the bottom of the chart to post a .762 team OPS against righties in this time before a Saturday tilt with Keider Montero. Montero's 4.37 xERA is better, but the real appeal for Texas' side of the total is getting to attack a Detroit 'pen with the worst skill-interactive ERA (4.19 SIERA) over the past month.

Offense could be on the menu at Globe Life Park.

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+300)

I intentionally shied away from Montero's contact splits to showcase them here.

Montero's 8.7% barrel rate ranks in just the 43rd percentile across baseball, and those issues have especially come back to bite him in opposite-handed matchups. Lefties have swatted 2.22 HR/9 off him, which isn't a massive surprise with a 38.9% flyball rate and 86.4% medium-to-hard contact rate.

Enter Corey Seager. The Rangers' most notable (or only?) potent left-handed bat has been swinging sweetly of late, producing 5 bombs in his last 73 plate appearances (PAs) against righties. He's also produced a .345 ISO, 33.3% flyball rate, and 48.9% hard-hit rate in these parameters.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections caught wind of the hot streak. At 0.31 median projected home runs, we'd have put Seager closer to +275 for a round trip.

St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Cardinals -1.5 (+130)

A road date in Phoenix was a tough spot out of the break, but the St. Louis Cardinals' stopper can even the series for them.

St. Louis has a 15-4 record in Sonny Gray's starts, and the right-hander's 3.05 SIERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, and 4.4% walk rate likely have something to do with it. The Arizona Diamondbacks have cooled off just a bit in Gray's split with just baseball's 12th-best OPS against righties in the past 30 days (.757).

In fact, the Cards (.776) are one of the 11 teams in front before their date with Ryne Nelson. Nelson's 3.68 ERA might be a tad lucky if a 4.20 xERA is any indication as he's struggled with hard contact (42.0% rate allowed).

The kicker as to why St. Louis is a good bet to win by two-plus? As this game ages, their bullpen (3.43 SIERA) has drastically outperformed Arizona's (4.15 SIERA) in the past month, as well.

Nolan Arenado to Record 2+ Total Bases (+120)

Curiously, Nelson's reverse splits are jarring.

The righty has permitted a .245 average to same-handed sticks. He's allowed lefties to hit just .161 against him. From a power perspective, righties slug .415 against him compared to lefties' .279.

Therefore, Nolan Arenado might be the Cardinals bat you want from left-hand-dominant order. Arenado is performing well against orthodox pitchers of late, too. He's mustered a .268 average, .171 ISO, and 32.4% hard-hit rate over his last 44 PAs.

FDR projects Arenado for 1.65 median total bases. That would imply a line closer to -103 -- not plus money -- if correct.

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

Brewers Moneyline (+118)

Between a pre-break series and Friday, the Milwaukee Brewers have taken four in a row from the Los Angeles Dodgers. This one sets up well, too.

Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta was their All-Star rep, and his 3.33 xERA and 25.9% K rate were deserving. Peralta struck out seven in six scoreless against the Dodgers at home as part of six quality starts in his last eight appearances.

That should give the Brew Crew a good chance to sneak ahead against Emmet Sheehan. In a tiny, 13.1-inning sample, Sheehan's ERA (2.03) is much better than his SIERA (3.87), and I'm a bit skeptical when he gave up 1.54 HR/9 at Triple-A this year.

Over the last 30 days, Milwaukee (.766 OPS) has been a much stronger offense than the Dodgers' (.659). Their bullpen (3.09 SIERA) has also been much better than L.A.'s (4.02) in this time.

Are the vaunted Dodgers favorites in name only tonight?

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.