4 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 11/14/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Mark Williams Over 11.5 Points (-115)

When looking at NBA props to consider, we need to find the spots where the market is either overvaluing or undervaluing a player's potential output. Tonight, I think Mark Williams is in a great spot to outdo what the market has in store for him.

Williams is averaging 14.8 points per game and has cleared this prop in six out of nine games this season. The three times where he did not clear this prop came against teams that rank in the top 10 of fewest field-goal attempts (FGA) allowed to centers per 36 minutes (including two teams that rank first and second in this regard).

The Charlotte Hornets and Williams will go up against a Miami Heat team that allows the 11th-fewest FGA to centers per 36 minutes -- but there's more to the story here.

Though the Heat may seem like a decent defensive team against centers, they are allowing the eighth-most FGA to this position when on the road.

Further, Miami has been without Tyler Herro for the last two games, which has shaken up their rotation. During this span, they've allowed centers the 10th-most points per 36 minutes and the eighth-most FGA. While it's a short split to go off of, something has to be said for how a team looks once they lose a key starter, and the results seem to favor Williams.

Williams scores a majority of his points in the paint (PITP) -- 79.7% to be exact. The Heat allow the 12th-most PITP to centers per 36 minutes.

numberFire is projecting a 13.8-point performance from Williams tonight, which is right around where I think he will end up and gives us some decent wiggle room with this prop.

I'd also check out Mark Williams to Record a Double-Double at +190. He's gotten double-digits in the points category in all but two games (and should be able to tonight for the aforementioned reasons), and the Heat allow centers the sixth-most rebounds per 36 minutes. Williams' rebound output can be a bit shaky, but his 24-board performance last week shows high potential. He could really exploit this rebound-sacrificing Miami team.

Isaiah Stewart Over 10.5 Points (-125)

Jalen Duren is out for the Detroit Pistons tonight, which means it's go time for Isaiah Stewart.

Stewart is averaging 12.5 points on the season and has cleared this prop in eight out of eleven games.

But in three games without Duren, Stewart is averaging 15.3 points and has cleared this prop in all three. I like Stewart's chances to score 11-plus even with Duren on the court, but with Detroit's starting center out, it's hard to ignore the type of opportunity this provides Stewart.

Tonight, he'll go up against the Atlanta Hawks, a team that is allowing the eighth-most points per game and the ninth-most points to centers per 36 minutes.

Atlanta sacrifices the seventh-most PITP, which should pair nicely with Stewart, who scores 42.0% of his points there. He also scores 43.5% of his points from behind the arc, and the Hawks give up the 11th-most three-point tries to centers per 36 minutes.

The final place Stewart makes his mark is at the free-throw line. He scores 11.6% of his points from the foul line, and the Hawks allow the ninth-most free-throw attempts to centers per 36 minutes.

Duren being out is enough to get me intrigued by Stewart, but this matchup against the Hawks is one that could be quite fruitful for him. I'd even check out Isaiah Stewart To Score 15+ Points at +270 -- he's primed to go for 11-plus tonight, so that's where I'll keep this prop, but the juicy +270 odds on him to net at least 15 points has my attention, too.

Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 Made Threes (-136)
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander Over 11.5 Reb + Ast (-120)

For the second year in a row, the San Antonio Spurs find themself giving up more points per game than any team in the league. With a matchup tonight against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that touts the third-best (tied) field goal percentage in the league, this looks to be an awesome spot for OKC.

To start, we'll target Luguentz Dort to drain at least two three-pointers. The Spurs are giving up the seventh-most three-point shots per game and allowing the most three-point makes per game, so Dort's 30.3 minutes on the court should put him in a great spot.

But what's even more exciting than this great matchup is the fact that Dort has cleared this prop in seven out of 10 games this season. He went 0-5 from downtown on Sunday, which is probably why his prop is set at a lowly 1.5 tonight, but even still, he is averaging 2.3 made triples per game.

Dort is lights out right now, shooting 47.9% from behind the arc -- a percentage that isn't sustainable as a season-long number but should afford him enough credit to make it rain tonight, especially against a team that begs opponents to shoot the ball from three.

Next up, we'll look to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to continue his early-season success and record 12-plus rebounds and assists (RA). SGA is averaging 13.0 RA going into tonight and has cleared this prop in seven out of nine games. In the two games where he didn't clear this, he recorded 11 RA in both, so he's always right there.

The Thunder's implied team total stands at a slate-high 124.5 points, so SGA should be set up to see many opportunities against a Spurs team that allows the fourth-most assists and 13th-most rebounds to opponents.

SGA played just one game against the Spurs last season, but he did record 14 RA in this matchup and averaged 13.7 RA in three games against San Antonio in the season prior.

If you're as high on this game as I am, you may want to consider taking advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's No Sweat Same Game Parlay for tonight's NBA on TNT games. This Thunder-Spurs matchup is one of two eligible games for the promo, and a date with the Spurs will always be exciting when it comes to player props.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.