4 MLB Best Bets for Monday 8/5/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals

Mets Over 4.5 Runs (-106)

The New York Mets have the eighth-most runs scored in MLB and are looking to snap their cold streak of 4.1 runs per game over the last eight contests. This is also inflated by an outlier of 15 runs on July 29th. Over the other seven games, New York put up only 2.6 runs per contest.

Tonight's opponent -- the St. Louis Cardinals -- have allowed the 12th-most earned runs this season. They also carry the ninth-highest xFIP in baseball.

Andre Pallante will take the mound tonight, and he touts a 4.04 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, and career-low 4.01 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).

The Mets have been one of the league's best power hitting teams with the eighth-highest slugging percentage (SLG), sixth-highest isolated power (ISO), and sixth-highest home run percentage. Even during a scoring drought, New York has managed to hit at least one dinger in six of their previous seven games.

Pallante is an ideal matchup for the Mets to lean into their slugging, for he is only in the 54th-percentile of hard-hit percentage. Plus, his most-used pitch in a four-seam fastball (51.1%), and New York has the second-most runs above average when facing this pitch. Fastballs look like meatballs to this lineup, and with over 50.0% of his pitches being heaters, Pallante could be in trouble.

Strikeouts have been a problem for the Mets, reaching double-digits in four of the last five. This once again falls in New York's favor with Pallante ranking in the bottom 20% of strikeout percentage (K%).

San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals

Over 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-118)

Game 1 of the San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals could feature each squad coming out of the gates with a bang. The starting pitcher duel of Logan Webb and Patrick Corbin could mean early run production.

Webb comes off a shutout start, giving up only five hits with no earned runs in nine innings. Prior to July 31st's start, Webb was carrying a 6.65 ERA over four appearances. Corbin, on the other hand, has just been plain bad with a 7.27 ERA over five starts in July -- which included 10 earned runs in his most recent appearance.

Starting with Webb, his most-used tool is a sinker (39.0%), and the Nats are tied for the sixth-most runs above average when facing this pitch. Washington's power has also been up with a dinger in three straight games compared to their 0.8 season-average (lowest mark). Meanwhile, Webb is in the bottom 21% of average exit velocity and bottom 3% of hard-hit percentage.

Moving to Corbin's matchup, the Giants have had two clear trends over their previous three games. San Francisco has been swinging for the fences, totaling eight long balls over three contests (2.7 per game) while totaling 12.7 strikeouts per game during the span.

Part of the homer success was thanks to being in the Great American Ball Park, which has the sixth-most dingers -- per Savant's park factors. Washington's Nationals Park is a different animal with the 13th-fewest big flies. However, Corbin is in the bottom 6% of average exit velocity and bottom 4% of hard-hit percentage.

Additionally, the Nationals' hurler is in the bottom 10% of K% and the bottom 14% for whiff rate. Along with his tendency to give up extra-base hits, Corbin could lack the stuff to keep making the Giants strike out.

Sluggers could elevate tonight's 4.5-run total in the first five innings to the over.

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals

Royals Moneyline (-138)
Red Sox Under 4.5 Runs (-108)

The Kansas City Royals are gearing up for a favorable matchup against the Boston Red Sox. Both squads are hot with the Red Sox touting a 3-1 record over their last four while the Royals are 6-1 over their previous seven.

Kansas City looks to have the leg up in pitching, though. James Paxton was recently acquired by Boston via trade. The veteran hurler has pretty underwhelming numbers once again, carrying a 4.52 ERA and 1.463 WHIP.

His advanced stats -- 5.40 SIERA and 5.29 xFIP -- suggest that Paxton's numbers should be even worse. This has been the case over Paxton's last five starts with a 8.18 ERA while opponents are batting .323.

Brady Singer is another pitcher with advanced stats that suggests regression. He has a 2.88 ERA compared to a 3.85 SIERA and 3.62 xFIP. However, Singer's numbers only got better in July with a 2.27 ERA over six appearances.

He's also given up only two dingers over his last eight starts -- a big help with Boston averaging the sixth-most home runs per game. The Royals' Kauffman Stadium has the fourth-fewest homers, as well.

Thanks to a clear pitching advantage and Kansas City's ability to limit the Sox's slugging, the Royals moneyline is sitting pretty.

Boston scoring under 4.5 runs pairs well with the Kansas City moneyline. We've mentioned Singer's dominance as he's consistently provided deep starts. In fact, he's completed the seven inning in four of his last five starts.

Additionally, Singer has given up one earned run or fewer in three of these four starts with seven innings pitched. Considering his ability to provide deep starts paired with limiting the Red Sox's homers, under 4.5 runs looks very enticing with -108 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.