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4 FanDuel NFL Values to Target in Week 4

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez•@nickvaz

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4 FanDuel NFL Values to Target in Week 4

Finding value is a key part of daily fantasy football on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.

As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

FanDuel Salary: $7,200

Oh, have the mighty have fallen.

Joe Burrow has had a rough start to the season, and his salary has sunk all the way down to $7,200. We knew he was carrying an injury from the preseason, but nobody expected him to be this ineffective. He is currently the QB30 in fantasy, one spot ahead of Zach Wilson.

Burrow did throw the ball 49 times on Monday night despite the team leading for a decent chunk of the game. That is a data point to suggest that the Cincinnati Bengals were comfortable enough with his health to let him drop back a lot.

The Bengals and Burrow are in a "get-right" spot this week, as they face the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have been the perfect team to target in the passing game this season. They allowed Deshaun Watson to have his best passing game as a member of the Cleveland Browns.

Tennessee now ranks 25th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, according to numberFire's metrics. They also are 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed per drop back.

Burrow needs a good game this week to get his season back on track. It's a perfect opportunity to buy low on him when a lot of fantasy players have soured on him.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Salary: $6,500

Returning from suspension, we get a nice discount on Alvin Kamara in Week 4.

In truth, Kamara was not at his best last season. He finished as the RB17 by half-PPR points per game, the lowest finish of his career. The New Orleans Saints' offense has taken a hit without Drew Brees, and it has hurt Kamara.

Kamara still has an excellent role in the Saints' offense. He saw a target on 25.2% of his routes last season while also getting 45.5% of the red-zone carries.

With Jamaal Williams on IR, New Orleans is down to rookie Kendre Miller who is coming off injury, and journeyman Tony Jones Jr.. They should be set to load up Kamara with a full workload considering the alternative for touches is two players they probably don't trust yet.

The Saints will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. Tampa ranks 27th in Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry allowed against running backs this season. Perhaps more importantly for Kamara's skill set, the Bucs are 31st in adjusted fantasy points per target against backs.

We're used to Kamara's salary exceeding $8,000, so this is a nice chance to play him before his salary is too potentially restrictive for our lineups.

Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers

FanDuel Salary: $6,800

A player that no one wanted to draft this summer, Adam Thielen punished those fantasy players who shied away from him last week.

Thielen had a big game in Week 3 with 11 catches for 146 yards and a touchdown. It wasn't just a one-game spike in usage as he also had seven catches and a score in Week 2.

The underlying usage for Thielen is fairly solid, as well. He has a 22.0% of the targets and 25.0% of the air yards for the Carolina Panthers through the three weeks.

If Thielen was punishing the doubters last week, this week he'll get a chance for revenge on his team. The Minnesota Vikings come to town to face the Panthers. Minnesota is 0-3 mostly because of their porous defense. Per numberFire's metrics, they're 26th in overall defense, 22nd against the pass, and 30th in adjusted fantasy points per target to receivers.

Thielen may not be an exciting, big-play threat, and he really never has been. However at this salary, he can provide value -- especially in this matchup.

Donald Parham, TE, Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Salary: $4,900

With tight end being the weirdest position in fantasy football, we can get a little weird with a value play.

Donald Parham Jr. is effectively the second tight end on the Los Angeles Chargers, so usually that would be an automatic cross-off. With the way he's being used, that actually isn't the case.

Parham has more touchdowns (3) than any other tight end this season. He's third in the league in red zone targets at his position. For the Chargers, he's seen 38% of the end-zone targets, and now 13% of those remaining targets are missing with Mike Williams being out for the season.

The Chargers will face the Las Vegas Raiders in one of the best games in Week 4. It has a total of 48.5 points, and the teams combined for the second-highest pass rate over expectation in any game on the main slate. The Raiders have been bad against tight ends this season, allowing a touchdown in back-to-back weeks against the position. They also rank 29th in adjusted fantasy points per target to TEs.

Tight end has been such a bad position this season that Parham is the TE6 by half-PPR scoring. If he is going to continue to get this red zone role, he will be an intriguing option for DFS tournaments -- especially in a game that could shoot out.


Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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