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4 FanDuel NFL Values to Target in Week 15

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

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Finding value is a key part of daily fantasy football on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.

As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

FanDuel Salary: ($7,200)

Last week, I talked about how I typically avoid salary-savers at the quarterback position. On most slates, there's just too much guaranteed production to be had with the top-shelf QBs.

This week is different.

Matthew Stafford -- the fourth-highest-scoring quarterback over the last three weeks -- carries the 11th-highest salary among QBs despite facing the single most fantasy-friendly pass defense in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed per dropback.

Talk about value.

Stafford has been red-hot, notching 24.36, 22.96, and 23.66 FanDuel points (FP) across his last three games. He's averaged 267.3 passing yards, 3.3 passing touchdowns, and 23.7 FP over that span.

His efficiency has gone beyond fantasy production, as well. In that sample, Stafford is tied for third with 0.30 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) -- numberFire's Expected Points Added model -- per dropback. That would rank second if extrapolated over the entire season.

Sure, one of those outings came against the lowly Arizona Cardinals, but the last two came against the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens -- the two best pass defenses in the NFL, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

He now gets the Washington Commanders, numberFire's 32nd-ranked pass defense. On the season, Washington has given up the most passing yards (266), passing touchdowns (2.3), and FanDuel points (22.4) per game to opposing QBs.

Yet, they've somehow been even worse of late.

On The Heat Check's Week 15 preview, FanDuel Research's Jim Sannes cited a mind-blowing stat. For the season, Brock Purdy leads the league in Passing NEP per dropback. Second-best? Whichever quarterback has faced the Commanders since the trade deadline.

Washington's defense is unbelievably bad, so it makes sense that the Rams have the second-highest implied team total (27.5) on the main slate.

This is a dream matchup for a proven quarterback playing his best ball of the season. He's an excellent value at his current salary.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, New England Patriots

FanDuel Salary: ($6,500)

Ezekiel Elliott saw how well Stafford's been playing and said "Let me throw it back to 2021, too."

With Rhamondre Stevenson out last week, Elliott posted a prime-Zeke stat line. He turned a staggering 38 adjusted opportunities into 140 total yards and a touchdown en route to 23.5 FP. That ranked second only behind Saquon Barkley's 23.6.

That kind of utilization is hard to come by at a $6,500 salary. Zeke played 91% of snaps, saw all 22 of the New England Patriots' RB rush attempts, and ran a route on 83% of Bailey Zappe's dropbacks. He led the team with a 31% target share, securing seven receptions for 72 yards.

Stevenson has remained sidelined at practice this week, so all signs point to another heavy workload for Elliott.

While New England likely won't face such a positive game script against the Kansas City Chiefs, the matchup is still solid. The Chiefs rank in the bottom 10 yards per carry (4.6), RB rush success rate, and adjusted fantasy points allowed per carry. They enter Week 15 as numberFire's 28th-ranked rush defense and have surrendered at least 13.5 FP to a running back in six of their last seven games.

Even if the Pats fall behind early, Elliott's receiving role should keep his value afloat. Kansas City has given up the 7th-highest catch rate and 11th-most adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing backs.

Running backs guaranteed for 20-plus opportunities don't grow on trees -- not at this salary, anyway.

That makes Zeke a sound value play this week.

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Salary: ($6,100)

Coming off a stellar 16.5-FanDuel-point game, Jayden Reed faces a soft pass defense and can be rostered for a measly $6,100.

Sign me up.

Reed commanded a team-high 26.3% target share with Christian Watson out last week. Though he finished with just 27 receiving yards, his 8 catches and 10 targets were both career-highs.

Furthermore, Reed continued to see work on the ground. He turned four rush attempts into 38 yards and a touchdown -- his second rushing score in the last four games. A.J. Dillon broke his thumb at the end of the game, so Reed could see an even bigger role in the backfield even if Aaron Jones is able to go.

Watson is unlikely to play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, paving the way for Reed to produce as the Green Bay Packers' No. 1 receiver yet again.

And, boy, the Bucs are a great team to be the No. 1 receiver against.

Tampa Bay is numberFire's 30th-ranked pass defense, giving up the third-most passing yards per game (264.1). They've let up the fourth-most raw fantasy points per target to WRs and are bottom-10 in yards per route run (YPRR) and average depth of target (aDOT) allowed to the position.

The game environment isn't great, but it's far from concerning. Green Bay has the eighth-highest implied team total (22.5) and is a 3.5-point favorite. That's more than enough to support a fantasy-relevant outing from Reed in such an advantageous matchup.

Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Commanders

FanDuel Salary: ($5,100)

There are some quality high-salaried tight ends on the main slate this week, but Logan Thomas is an intriguing value given his $5,100 salary.

Thomas' snap share, route rate, and target share were all trending down headed into Washington's Week 14 bye, but he was still the Commanders' top tight end. He saw a 19% target share as recently as Week 11 and ranks third on the team -- regardless of position -- with a season-long 71% route rate.

It's been difficult to know who, exactly, will be the No. 1 target for the Commanders on a week-to-week basis, but they rank third in pass rate over expectation. Washington is a 6.5-point underdog in an indoor matchup that has a 50.5-point total. Targets will be available for the taking.

Against the Rams, those targets have gone to tight ends at the 14th-highest rate (17.9%) in the NFL, but no team has been as fantasy-friendly with said targets. LA has given up the fourth-most yards per route run, most touchdowns, and most adjusted fantasy points per target to the position.

Thomas hasn't been very consistent, but he's eclipsed 13 FP twice this season. There's upside to be had in the right matchup.

Considering the Rams have given up at least 9.5 FP to TEs in five of their last six games, Logan Thomas has the makings of a solid value in Week 15.


Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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