4 FanDuel NFL Values to Target in Week 14

Finding value is a key part of daily fantasy football on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.

As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: ($6,800)

I'm a firm believer in ponying up for top quarterbacks in DFS, but if you're looking for a value arm in Week 14, Baker Mayfield fits the bill.

Baker is coming off a rough trio of games during which he's failed to eclipse 14.5 FanDuel points.

But, this has easily been his worst three-game stretch of the season. Before this, Baker had scored at least 19 points in three straight games.

He's due for a bounceback against a Atlanta Falcons allowing the sixth-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback to opposing QBs.

Baker notched 17.2 FanDuel points against Atlanta in Week 7, completing 64% of his 42 pass attempts for 275 yards and a touchdown.

Outside of fantasy, Atlanta is a middle-of-the-pack pass defense. However, they rank third in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rush defense metrics. Tampa Bay already struggles to run the ball (league-low 3.5 yards per attempt), so it wouldn't shock anyone to see them air it out this week.

The total is modest (40.5), but Tampa is also a 2.5-point underdog playing in a dome. That could nudge Tampa -- ninth in early-down pass rate, per RBSDM -- to continue airing it out against a soft secondary.

Like I said, I tend to target the big-name QBs in DFS, but there's no denying Baker Mayfield's value at such a low salary in Week 14.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

FanDuel Salary: ($6,600)

James Cook is a tricky player to evaluate in the broader view of this Buffalo Bills team -- especially in the wake of their recent offensive coordinator change.

On the one hand, Cook's snap rate has dropped from 56% with Ken Dorsey to 45% with Joe Brady. Meanwhile, backup Latavius Murray's snap rate climbed from 34% to 39% under Brady with Ty Johnson creeping in with a 15% share in the last two games.

But on the other hand, Cook's utilization has skyrocketed under Brady.

While his snap rate is down, Cook is seeing an opportunity (rush attempt or target) on 60% of snaps with Joe Brady calling plays. That's Derrick Henry-like usage.

He's averaged nearly 20 more yards per game over the last two weeks despite downticks in rushing success rate and rushing yards over expectation. If Cook can flip those back to where they were in the first 10 games, look out.

Granted, the Joe Brady sample is only 2 games compared to 10 with Ken Dorsey. However, I can buy into Cook losing a few snaps to Murray in exchange for that opportunity bump.

The matchup this week is solid, too. The Kansas City Chiefs rank 28th in RB rushing success rate and have allowed the sixth-most adjusted fantasy points per carry to opposing running backs. The game has a 48.5-point total, so there should be touchdowns to go around here.

With a nice matchup and intriguing usage in recent games, James Cook could provide a ton of value at his current salary.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: ($6,300)

I'm buying into the recent Rashee Rice breakout, and at this salary, he makes for a strong value play in Week 14.

Averaging a team-best 2.60 yards per route run, the talent hasn't been a question for Rice. The role has been, but that's changing.

Rice has set season-best route rates marks the last two weeks, peaking at 72% last week. He's led the Chiefs with a 31% target share over that span, averaging 8.0 receptions per game.

The rookie flexed his upside with 20.7 FanDuel points in Week 12, but he showed a nice floor with 10.4 last week.

Sure, his 2.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in that sample leaves a lot to be desired, but it's clear KC is making him a point of emphasis.

That could pay dividends in this matchup with Buffalo. The Bills have allowed the ninth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing WRs. Notably, they're second in both target rate (16.8%) and aDOT (9.7) allowed to the position, but they're also surrendering the third-highest catch rate.

If the Chiefs want to get Rashee Rice, there's not much Buffalo will be able to do to stop them. Based on the last two weeks, Rice looks to be a focal point of this offense going forward.

I already mentioned this game's 48.5-point total, but it's worth repeating with the caveat that Rice is a close second on the team in red zone target rate (22%).

While this Chiefs offense hasn't been nearly as dangerous as in years past, Rice's growing role and low salary make him a top wide receiver value in DFS.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: ($5,200)

Kyle Pitts quietly ran a route on 90% of dropbacks last week after failing to eclipse a 70% route rate in each of the previous four games. He matched that with a 32% target rate, his highest of the season.

While that only led to 7.1 FanDuel points in poor weather, it bodes well for his fantasy prospects going forward.

This week, Pitts takes on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has been quite stingy toward opposing tight ends, allowing the fifth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target.

But, I don't think we should shy away from the matchup. The Bucs gave up at least five receptions to T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Kincaid, Dalton Schultz, and George Kittle, so it's not like top tight ends haven't found success against them.

In fact, Tampa has let up the seventh-highest target rate (20%) and the ninth-most yards per route run (1.44) to the position. Pitts himself managed 6.2 FanDuel points in a Week 7 matchup with them, securing 3 passes for 47 yards.

And that was on the road.

This week, Pitts is at home -- something that matters a great deal for quarterback Desmond Ridder. Ridder has averaged 7.8 more attempts and 85.7 more passing yards at home compared to on the road. Both his passing success rate (53% home; 40% road) and completion percentage (66% home; 60% road) are significantly higher at home than on the road, as well.

Tampa Bay is also a bottom-six pass defense according to numberFire's scheduled-adjusted metrics, so the Falcons should find some success through the air.

I understand if you're skeptical about buying into Pitts this week, but at this salary -- and in this matchup -- he's a serious value at the tight end position.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.