4 FanDuel NFL Values to Target in Week 12

Finding value is a key part of daily fantasy football on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.

As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Gardner Minshew, QB, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Salary: ($6,700)

Gardner Minshew carries one of the lowest quarterback salaries on Sunday's main slate but has a dream matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Minshew has been largely irrelevant in DFS this year. Aside from a 28.1-point blowup in Week 7 (that came via two rushing touchdowns), he hasn't eclipsed 16.0 FanDuel points in any other week. Things have been particularly quiet in his last two games as he's failed to throw for 200 yards or score 10 FanDuel points in either.

However, coming out of the bye, Minshew is in a strong spot to produce against the Bucs. Tampa Bay has been friendly to opposing quarterbacks, allowing the fifth-highest EPA per dropback while generating the eighth-lowest pressure rate. They've been especially poor down the field, surrendering the fifth-most deep yards per target.

It also helps that Tampa has numberFire's top-ranked rush defense. If the Bucs shut down the Indianapolis Colts rushing attack, Minshew could see an uptick in volume.

Game script could work out in Minshew's favor, as well. Indy is only a 2.5-point home favorite, while the total is set at 43.5 points.

numberFire projects Minshew for 16.1 FanDuel points. At his salary, that ties him for the third-highest point-per-dollar value at the position.

Getting one of his top pass catchers healthy (more on that below) and coming in fresh off the bye should only further aid Minshew's cause. If you're looking for a QB value, Minshew is worth a look.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: ($6,600)

After three quiet outings, Isiah Pacheco's salary has dwindled. His own struggles have mirrored the Kansas City Chiefs' woes as a whole. They've scored just four offensive touchdowns over their last three games.

Despite the lack of fantasy production, Pacheco's utilization has remained stellar. He's averaged 18.3 adjusted opportunities per game, maintained a 61.5% snap share, and commanded a 55.6% red zone rushing share.

His yards per carry is actually up to 4.5 over that span, and he's fresh off his second-highest yardage total (89) of the season.

The biggest thing holding back Pacheco has been a lack of touchdowns, but that should change in Week 12. Kansas City sports the highest implied total of the main slate (26.0), and their running back boasts the game's shortest odds to score (-150).

That's largely thanks to the matchup. The Las Vegas Raiders are decent against the pass, but they rank 29th against the rush by numberFire's defensive metrics. They're similarly 29th in RB rush success rate and rank in the bottom 10 in both rushing yards over expectation per carry and rush EPA per attempt.

On top of that, the Chiefs are 9.5-point road favorites. If KC jumps out to an early lead, expect them to ride Pacheco early and often. As the lead back for the team with the slate's top implied total, Pacheco is a real value at his current salary.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Salary: ($5,900)

I'm in on the Colts' passing attack this week, so Josh Downs at $5,900 is music to my ears.

Downs peaked at $6,400 a few weeks back, but two lackluster performances followed by Indy's bye have quieted some of the hype around him.

Some context is needed for those two quiet outings. Despite eclipsing a 68.9% snap share in every other game, Downs played just 19.3% of snaps in Week 9 and 24.1% in Week 10 due to a knee injury. While it didn't stop him from impacting the game with big-time plays, but it kept his fantasy production in check.

Thankfully, the week off seems to have helped his injury as he was back at practice on Wednesday. Considering he didn't practice at all leading up to Week 10, his availability is very encouraging for Sunday.

Assuming he's good to go this week, Downs could be in for a major bounceback against the Bucs.

For one, Downs' utilization was trending in a great direction before Week 9. In the two weeks prior to the injury, Downs ran a route on 82.9% of dropbacks, commanded a 25% target share, and saw a 10.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT). He averaged 15.9 FanDuel points across those two contests.

If he can replicate that usage, he can be a superb value at his current salary. Tampa Bay is stingy against the run, but they rank 27th in pass D, per numberFire's metrics. That should, in theory, help nudge Indy away from their 29th-ranked mark in pass rate over expectation (-5.7%).

But even if the Colts pound the rock, Downs could still have a nice day. It won't take much to produce against this secondary. They've allowed the second-most FanDuel points per target (1.65), the fifth-most yards per route run (1.91), and the eighth-highest aDOT (11.3) to opposing wide receivers.

It doesn't hurt that Indy has a healthy 23.0-point implied total.

With a friendly salary and soft matchup, Downs is a serious value at wideout this week.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

FanDuel Salary: ($5,700)

On a normal week, it would be hard for me to call a $5,700 tight end a value. But this isn't a normal week. The main slate has only 20 teams to choose from, and the tight-end landscape is capital-B barren, to say the least.

But it's barren for everyone. Value is relative, so if everyone else is swarming to top options, David Njoku is an intriguing salary saver.

Clearly, the Cleveland Browns' offense has taken a hit with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. DTR has completed fewer than 56% of his passes and has led Cleveland to a combined 16 points across his two starts. This is not a fantasy-friendly offense.

That is, unless your name is David Njoku. Operating as DTR's safety blanket, Njoku has seen a downright silly 36.6% target share last week. He turned those 15 targets into seven receptions and 56 yards.

I'm open to the idea that kind of volume can continue -- to an extent. Njoku also led the team with a 20.6% target share in DTR's only other start back in Week 4. While his average depth of target in those games (4.1 yards) is brutal, he doesn't need downfield looks to be productive. Among tight ends with at least 10 receptions, Njoku has averaged a league-leading 7.8 yards after the catch per reception.

His matchup is great this week, as well. The Denver Broncos have allowed the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing tight ends this season. On top of that, they've let up the fifth-highest target rate (21.2%) and the most yards per route run (1.91) to the position.

Njoku is the lowest-salaried tight end I trust this week, and his stellar utilization makes him a sweet value compared to some of the names listed above him.

If you're really trying to save some salary in larger tournaments. I don't hate Pat Freiermuth ($4,900), either. Freiermuth saw just one target in his first game back, but it was in a tough matchup and he was limited to a 54.4% snap share. He's been fully healthy for just two weeks this season, but he ran a route on 87.5% and 75.9% of dropbacks in those games.

Assuming 'Muth gets more run, I'm optimistic we see flashes of the guy who averaged 7.3 FanDuel points per game and commanded an 18.8% target share last season. It doesn't hurt that, Freiermuth draws a Cincinnati Bengals defense that's let up the fifth-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback to tight ends. Matt Canada's dismissal should only help Pittsburgh's offense.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.