4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

The NFL playoffs are both a blessing and a pest.

On the one hand, we get great games featuring elite quarterback play and -- hopefully -- tight results.

On the other, with so many eyes on these games -- and fewer games overall -- it may be harder to find betting value.

It's always important not to force it in those situations. I'd rather make no bet than a bad bet, and that dynamic is especially prevalent this time of year.

Luckily, I do think we can find some good spots in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds for Wild Card Weekend.

Let's dive into four bets I like this week for the opening round of the playoffs.

NFL Wild Card Round Betting Picks

Chargers at Texans

Texans' Moneyline (+130)

Believe me: I don't want to show value on the Houston Texans. I just can't make them any lower in my model's NFL Wild Card Weekend spread and total predictions, and even with that, their win odds are undersold against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Through the regular season, the Texans are 21st in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. They were a below-average offense, and that was even with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell on the field at times, players they won't have against the Chargers.

Their defense, though, deserves credit and has been an active plus. It's a big part of why they're still alive. They rank fifth there, including fifth against the pass, and are largely healthy beyond Jalen Pitre, who is on IR.

The Chargers are 11th offensively and 8th defensively, a hyper-competitive team. There's a reason they're favored, and they are favored in my model, as well.

That spread is only 0.7, though, much tighter than the market. Thus, I'm willing to bet on the home team here and hope they're able to make at least some gains on offense.

Steelers at Ravens

Ravens -9.5 (-115)

The Baltimore Ravens are a good enough team to justify a spread this large against a familiar foe, a high endorsement of just how filthy they've been this year.

The Ravens finished 2024 as numberFire's top-ranked overall offense and first through the air, besting the Pittsburgh Steelers' marks of 22nd and 18th, respectively. On a per-play basis, the Ravens' offense was 0.21 Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) better than the Steelers, a much bigger gap than the one between the Ravens' defense and the Steelers' (0.02 Adjusted Defensive NEP per play).

The Ravens' defense has also been on the ascent. Through the first nine weeks, Kyle Hamilton had played just 26.9% of his snaps at safety and was lined up an average of just 5.3 yards from the line of scrimmage. Since, those numbers are 64.6% and 9.1, respectively. Their Adjusted Defensive NEP per play in that latter span is -0.03, second in the league behind only the Philadelphia Eagles.

That's a big part of why -- despite showing value in the over on the total, as well -- I prefer to lay the points with the Ravens. There's a scenario where they stifle a sputtering offense and don't have to go nuclear on offense.

Teams favored by roughly the same amount as the Ravens in my model have covered a 9.5-point spread 67.9% of the time (sample of 28 teams), allowing me to lay nearly double digits even at -115.

Broncos at Bills

Broncos +8.5 (-108)

I was holding out hope the market would buy into the Buffalo Bills here, allowing us to get the Denver Broncos at a better number. That never happened, so I'm willing to bite the bullet and buy in now.

The hesitancy stems from betting against Josh Allen. The Bills are stone-cold psychopaths and can hang 40 on most teams. They're more than capable of covering a large spread.

At the same time, this is a big number for how respectable the Broncos played down the stretch. They finished second in numberFire's defensive rankings, and the offense enters having put up 24-plus points in each of their final 7 games, including 30-plus in 4 of those.

My model has the Broncos as 6.3-point underdogs. Teams in that range have covered an 8.5-point spread 60.0% of the time (sample of 90 teams). Thus, I'm willing to bet the Broncos even if doing so does make me nervous.

Commanders at Buccaneers

Total Over 50.5 (-105)

The playoffs are supposed to be fun. Points are fun. I'm expecting fireworks here, allowing me to take the over even on a high number.

That's due to both these two offenses and what they've done on the defensive side.

The Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the regular season as numberFire's fourth- and fifth-ranked offenses overall. On defense, they were 25th and 17th, respectively. Two unstoppable forces; two abundantly movable objects.

When you put that in wind speeds projected at just 4 miles per hour, you get a total at 54.0 in my model. It's the fourth-highest in my model's history.

That's high enough for me to ride with the baseline over, and I'd also be willing to give consideration to alternate overs with over 59.5 at +285 being my preferred sweet spot.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.