4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 18

I'm not opposed to betting Week 18 games where nothing's on the line.

We typically know which players will play early in the week. And as long as you're accounting for that, you can still find quality betting value in those games.

In fact, we'll touch on one later where a team is starting backups but still looks like they're worth our attention.

With that said, it is nice to find potential value in games where you know both teams will be giving it their all. I think we get that in the game of the week between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.

The winner gets the 1 seed and a first-round bye; the loser is the 5 seed and will be on the road next week. The stakes don't get much bigger than this.

This means tons of eyeballs are on this game, and betting markets will generally be efficient. As a result, we should tread lightly in these spots, knowing we're less likely to get a massive error in the market.

I still want to dive in, regardless, with both the spread and the total. Let's start there and then dive into other spots where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

NFL Week 18 Betting Picks

Vikings at Lions

Lions -2.5 (-120)

With 16 games in the book, there's no doubt that the Vikings are a legitimate threat. They've proven that time after time this year.

I just think the Lions are the better team, and the gap there is big enough for me to lay the 2.5.

Most of this centers around the offense. The Lions enter Week 18 sitting second in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings; the Vikings are 10th.

Having the 10th-ranked offense paired with the top-ranked defense is massive. That's especially true when the Lions' defensive injuries have pushed them down to 11th on the defensive side of things.

It does help that the Lions are getting reinforcements, though. Linebacker Alex Anzalone returned to practice Wednesday, and the team released Jamal Adams. While that doesn't ensure Anzalone will be back out there, it at least signals he's got a shot, which would be a big boost to this battered defense.

Teams favored by roughly the same amount as the Lions in my model have covered a 2.5-point spread 63.1% of the time, above the implied odds of 54.6%. If this gets to the Lions -3, teams have covered that number 52.4% of the time with a push occurring at a 10.7% clip. Thus, I'd be fine with either number as the Lions appear undervalued regardless.

Vikings at Lions Total Under 56.5 (-115)

If you're placing just one bet on this game, I'd prefer the under on the total over laying the points with the Lions.

That's mostly because this is just a massive number. It's the highest for any NFL game since the start of last year, topping this year's Week 15 matchup between the Lions and Buffalo Bills, which closed at 54.5 points. Considering that one wound up featuring 90 points, I can understand why we got to 56.5 here.

My model's happy to project points, as well. It has the total at 53.2, the fifth-highest mark since the start of last year. The four games ahead of it have featured an average of 70 points, so we definitely have the makings of a shootout.

I do feel, though, as we if we have enough paths to an under to feel comfortable. Both teams are capable of grinding clock and playing the time-of-possession game should they hold a lead late. Additionally, neither defense is a true pushover. There are plenty scenarios where this game is electric but still doesn't get to 57 points.

That's a big part of what makes this bet palatable: you can take the under, feel like you're getting good value, and still not be miserable with every big play an offense gets here. From a football fan perspective, that's the final little push I need to ride with the model on this one.

Bengals at Steelers

Total Under 48.5 (-115)

There's a scenario where the Pittsburgh Steelers could scale back starters in this game. Even without accounting for that, I still see value in the under as they face the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Baltimore Ravens play earlier in the day, and if they win, they lock up the AFC North title. Given they're 17.5-point favorites, a win there seems likely.

If that happens, the Steelers would be playing for just seeding against the Bengals. The 5 seed is worth a decent amount as you'd rather face the Houston Texans than the Ravens, but there's at least a non-zero chance they could give some of their key players reps off.

I'm not projecting that as I do think the Steelers will push all four quarters. But even without that, I've got this total at 44.5 points.

Some of that is due to weather. The current forecast calls for 11 mph winds, which lowers the total more than a point for me from where it'd be if those were at 5 mph.

This also isn't a fast-paced game, and the Steelers' defense is a solid unit. Obviously things got wonky in the first meeting with 82 total points between the two teams, but I do think we see a lower-scoring affair in the rematch.

Chiefs at Broncos

Chiefs +10.5 (-115)

I'm placing real, hard-earned money on Carson Wentz in the year 2025 when the other team needs a win.

What could possibly go wrong?

At the end of the day, even with the Kansas City Chiefs resting starters, this is too many points.

We just saw a similar scenario last year. In that one, the Chiefs also sat Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce to rest for the playoffs. As a result, the Los Angeles Chargers closed as 3.5-point favorites; the Chiefs still won, 13-12.

Obviously, that's a different scenario as the Chargers were playing with an interim coach while the Denver Broncos need a win to lock up a playoff berth. But with only 53 players on the roster and only 48 active on game day, they can't sit everybody. Some decent players will still have to suit up. It's not as if we're getting the full second string out there.

Even with massive downgrades in for the Chiefs, I still have the Broncos favored by just 4.5 points here. Denver is a middling offense -- 16th in numberFire's rankings -- making it unlikely they go scorched-Earth and hang 40.

The potential for a low-scoring, grind-it-out game should increase our willingness to take the points when we're getting double digits, regardless of who's playing quarterback for the Chiefs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.