3 NHL Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 11/22/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NHL player props bets that look appealing via the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jake Guentzel To Score a Goal (+125)
The Pittsburgh Penguins have a 3.33 implied goal total tonight at home to take on the New York Rangers, a matchup with plenty of scoring potential.
Over the last two seasons, Jake Guentzel has scored 36 and 40 goals, putting him among the best in the league. This year, he has just six goals in 17 games and is underproducing relative to expectations.
Guentzel comes in with 10.3 Expected Goals Scored, which is the second-highest in the entire NHL, and has just six goals to show for it. This means Guentzel is taking a ton of shots, many of which are high-danger shots, and he's simply not scoring.
It's a bit of bad 'puck luck' which has led to an 11.1% shooting percentage this year, which would the be lowest of his career. He posted a shooting percentage of 14.8% and 15.2% in the last two seasons, which fall in line with his 15.5% career percentage.
He is doing everything right on the ice, he's just not scoring. Given his role on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, he will continue to be a high-volume shooter and just needs a lucky bounce to go his way.
Dougie Hamilton To Record 4+ Shots on Goal (+154)
A soft matchup should allow the New Jersey Devils to pile up the shots tonight.
The Devils are on the road to take on the Detroit Red Wings, who are playing their first game since returning from Sweden, where they played two games last week in the NHL Global Series.
Potentially some slow and jet-lagged legs can give the Devils an extra step and lead to a bit more offense tonight.
The Red Wings come in allowing 61.29 shot attempts per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 13th most in the league. The Devils are on the other side of the coin with 64.86 shot attempts produced in the same situations, which is the seventh-best in the league.
Among NHL defensemen this season, Dougie Hamilton sits with the fourth-most (53) shots on goal, which is good for 3.3 per game. Hamilton has played in 16 NHL games this season and has hit at least four shots on goal in eight of those games or 50% of the time.
If we convert the +154 odds to implied probability, we get 39.4%. That differential presents a bit of value, since Hamilton is cashing this prop 50% of the time this season.
Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-108)
Kyle Connor is tied for the league lead in goals (14) and likes to take a ton of shots.
Connor has 69 shots on goal which is good for the ninth-most in the league this year, making him a player we can consider on most nights. An average of 4.05 shots on goal per game is elite, which is why it's rather surprising to see him with just two total shots on goal in his last two games combined.
Even after two slow games, he's still averaging over four shots on goal, which should tell you enough about his potential upside.
The Winnipeg Jets come in with a 3.25 implied goal total against the Tampa Bay Lightning, who continue to be a mess on defense. Over the last two weeks, the Lightning are allowing 3.85 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the third-worst in the league.
At nearly even money, Connor's prop is one of my favorites on the slate given his level of consistency, and favorable matchup.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.



