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3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Saturday 12/14/24

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3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Saturday 12/14/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings

Red Wings Moneyline (+146)

Moneyline

Detroit Red Wings
Dec 15 12:08am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

When the Toronto Maple Leafs made a coaching change this past offseason, they did so without considering every possible option. The Leafs hastily hired Craig Berube despite there being other top options available. While they may come to regret the hiring in the long-term, we predict that the Maple Leafs will be at a disadvantage against the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday night.

Toronto is no longer the analytics powerhouse it once was. The Leafs have fallen to 16th in the expected goals-for category, posting a season-long average of 50.2%. However, that benchmark has taken a serious hit over Toronto’s recent sample. Across their past eight games, the Maple Leafs have been outplayed on six occasions, yielding a sub-optimal 45.3% eGF.

The Red Wings continue to rely on a stringent defense system to stay competitive, and we’ve seen the best they have to offer more recently. Detroit has held four of its past five opponents to eight high-danger chances or fewer, allowing a paltry average of 6.8 per game. Predictably, that’s had a positive impact on their expected goals-for rating. The Wings are up to 50.8% across the five-game sample.

The Leafs have been unable to maintain their analytics footing this season, and it should start to cost them in the win column. We’re predicting that will be the case on Saturday night, as they appear outmatched against a resilient Red Wings side. On that basis, we see an edge in backing the Red Wings as home underdogs.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators

Penguins Moneyline (+120)

Moneyline

Dec 15 12:09am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Ottawa Senators are in an unfortunate spot on Saturday night. Fresh off a decisive 3-0 victory against the Carolina Hurricanes, the Sens take to the ice for the second consecutive night against the surging Pittsburgh Penguins. Ottawa has been installed as home favorites, but a mismanaged goaltending situation puts them at a disadvantage against the Pens.

There was no right answer for their goaltending scenario. Ottawa could have saved Linus Ullmark for tonight’s tilt versus the Penguins, instead starting him versus the Canes on Friday night. Now, Anton Forsberg and his 88.9% save percentage is tasked with slowing down an efficient Pens’ offense.

Pittsburgh’s recent ascent is grounded in improved offensive play. The Pens have won six of eight while putting up 37 goals over that stretch. That scoring appears to be coming from a sustainable place, with the Penguins surpassing 10 high-danger chances in all but three of those contests.

More importantly, that scorching offense gives the Pens a significant advantage against Ottawa’s backup on Saturday night. As a result, we see value in backing the Penguins as road underdogs.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg ets

Over 6.5 (+124)

Alternate Total Goals

Over 6.5
Dec 15 12:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Montreal Canadiens head west for an inter-conference showdown versus the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday night. Early action has poured in on the Jets, but bettors could be overlooking a massive discount on the total.

The Habs’ defensive zone coverage is collapsing. Four of their last six opponents have exceeded 12 high-danger chances, for a robust average of 12.2 per game. As expected, that’s eroding Montreal’s ability to prevent scoring. They gave up a jaw-dropping nine goals last time out which could be foreshadowing what to expect over their coming games.

Moreover, we expect the Jets to press their offensive advantage on Saturday night. Winnipeg has eclipsed 10 high-danger chances in three of five, which has been a primary factor in its improve scoring. Over that five-game sample, Winnipeg is up to 18 goals with 11 of those coming at five-on-five.

Even the best defenses in the league can’t contain the Jets right now, and the Montreal Canadiens will offer little resistance. There may be an edge in backing the Jets on home ice, but we see better value elsewhere. Goals should be plentiful at Canada Life Centre with this one potentially smashing its total on Saturday night.


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