3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 9
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player prop bets that look appealing.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and we kick things off on Thursday Night! I'll be bringing this article every Thursday along with a show on the Covering the Spread podcast feed to break things down.
Diontae Johnson Any Time Touchdown (+220)
The last time Diontae Johnson scored a touchdown was January 16th, 2022. That changes this week.
Johnson went the entire 2022 NFL season without scoring a touchdown. That's right, despite having the 15th-most receptions (86) in the entire league, Johnson was not able to put one into the endzone.
Johnson has only played in three games this season due to a hamstring injury he suffered in Week 1, but he's looked great since returning two weeks ago. Over these last two games, Johnson has a total of 20 targets, 13 receptions, and 164 receiving yards.
That stems from a team-high 31.7% target share, along with a 40.0% red zone target share which is tied for the highest on the team. It's pretty clear that he's back and ready to go, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to get him the ball.
The matchup against the Tennessee Titans is a good one, as they've allowed the seventh-most (150) receptions and the 11th-most (1,318) receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
The Steelers should look to jump on that and move the ball via the passing game, which they've already been doing. Their 60.48% pass play percentage is the 10th highest in the league.
Johnson not scoring a touchdown is some bad variance in the grand scheme of things. What's not variance is a high target share and high red zone target share, which put him in a great spot to score this week.
George Pickens Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-114)
From one Steelers' wide receiver to another, with over 22.5 yards longest reception for George Pickens.
Pickens is known for getting downfield and breaking off big receptions -- something he should be able to continue tonight. On the season, Pickens has a 13.8 average depth of target (aDOT) and 41.6% air yards share, both of which are the highest on the team.
In the two weeks since Johnson returned, Pickens has a 16.5 aDOT and 38.1% air yards share, both of which are the second-highest in that span.
Pickens has broken off long receptions of 22, 31, 32, 41, and 71 yards this season. This is on par with what he did last season, finishing 11 games with long receptions at 23 yards or higher.
When it comes to the Titans' secondary, I noted above how they've struggled overall this season versus wide receivers. To be specific, they've allowed a long reception of 23 yards or more in six of their seven games this season.
This is a favorable spot for Pickens to do his normal thing and haul in a long reception.
Chig Okonkwo Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Finally, let's hit under 24.5 receiving yards for Titans' tight end, Chigoziem Okonkwo.
This doesn't set up to be the best matchup for Okonkwo, who plays a modest role to begin with. The Steelers' defense has only allowed 281 receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season, which is the fourth-fewest in the league.
They've locked things down in the middle of the field and are forcing teams to pass to the outside. The Steelers have allowed the eighth-most (1,367) receiving yards to wide receivers, making that the clear route to attack.
Okonkwo has a 17.1% target share and a very modest 6.9 aDOT. This has led to him hitting the under on this prop in four of seven games this season.
Not to mention the Titans have a 54.75% pass play percentage, which is 24th in the league. Last week, with Will Levis under center, that rate dropped to 46.27%.
Okonkwo has a tough matchup, isn't being targeted a lot or downfield, and the Titans are still a run-first team. All of this should limit Okonkwo's ability to pick up yards and lead to under 24.5 this week.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.