3 NFL Divisional Round Prop Bets for Buccaneers at Lions
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: Prop Bets
Cade Otton to Score a Touchdown (+360)
The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs gets going this weekend and I'll be taking a look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus the Detroit Lions.
The home Lions are 6.5-point favorites in a game that features a solid 48.5-point over/under, a good indication we should see some scoring. As road underdogs, the Buccaneers appear to be set for a passing game script, so we want the props to reflect as such.
During the regular season, the Lions' defense allowed the eighth-most (940) receiving yards and tied for the fourth-most (6) touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
This leads me to Cade Otton, for the Buccaneers, who plays a solid role in their passing game. Otton finished the regular season with the fifth-highest (12.2%) target share on the team but the second-highest (17.5%) red zone target share.
Last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, Otton ended with 11 targets, 8 receptions, and 89 receiving yards, but no touchdowns. This equated to a 31.4% target share and a big 50.0% red zone target share, clear increases from his season rates.
While this is a one-game sample size, Otton's role is secure for the Buccaneers and now has a favorable matchup to exploit.
If the Buccaneers are going to be in a passing game script as road underdogs, Otton should have plenty of chances to play a big role and have a shot at finding the end zone.
Mike Evans Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
One from Buccaneers' player to another, with over 68.5 receiving yards for Mike Evans.
Under the same thought process that the Buccaneers are in a passing game script, their best receiver could be in for a big game this Sunday.
Evans is coming off three straight games where he has been held to a total of 9 receptions, 70 yards or fewer in all three, and no touchdowns. That's rather noticeable for one of the most consistent receivers in the league this season and it's simply time for the Bucs to get their best player the ball in a must-win game.
When it comes to the Lions' secondary, they were torched this season to the tune of 3,081 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, which was the third-worst in the NFL.
That puts Evans in a great spot, considering he led the Buccaneers with a 24.5% target share, 41.3% air yards share, 14.3 average depth of target (aDOT), and 25.4% red zone target share. He's their main guy in the passing game, which led him to go over this 68.5 mark eight times this season.
The Buccaneers have a clear for passing the ball this week and Evans should be front and center for them.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7.5 Receptions (-108)
From the Lions' side of things, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the go-to option.
As 6.5-point favorites, the Lions are rocking a 27.50 implied team total, a strong indication they will be moving the ball downfield and putting up points. If that's the case, ARSB should be firmly involved in the offense.
Except for aDOT, ARSB led the Lions in every metric this season. He played on 90.6% of the snaps, ran a route on 92.9% of dropbacks, with a 30.4% target share, 33.4% air yards share, and 35.7% red zone target share.
He ended the season with the second-most (119) receptions in the entire NFL, good for 7.4 per game, and hit the over on this prop seven times.
The Buccaneers' secondary also struggled versus wide receivers this season as they allowed the eighth-most (226) receptions and the fourth-most (3,043) receiving yards.
St. Brown has a clear path to success this Sunday and has proven to be one of the most consistent pass-catchers in the NFL.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.