3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 2/7/24

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

Jaylen Brown Over 21.5 Points (-120)

Jaylen Brown could have his way with the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

On the season, Brown is averaging 22.3 points per game. He is surpassing 21.5 points at a slightly higher rate (56.5%) than the implied probability for this prop (54.5%), but I'm much more interested in looking at how he could fare well in what will be a pace-up environment for the Boston Celtics.

The Celtics rank 18th in pace of play, while the Hawks play at the league's fourth-fastest pace.

In 23 games where Brown has gone up against teams that rank in the top 15 of pace, he is averaging 23.7 points and is clearing 21.5 points at a 60.9% clip.

But beyond the pace-up game that could favor Boston scorers, it seems Atlanta's weak spots on defense could feed into the areas where Brown finds most success.

Atlanta is surrendering the second-most points per game to shooting guards and the seventh-most points per game to small forwards. Boston wings, such as Brown, have proven they can exploit this.

Brown nets 46.9% of his points in the paint, and the Hawks are giving up the third-most paint points in the league. He also nets 27.2% of his points from behind the arc while Atlanta is letting up the fourth-most three-point makes (3PM) per game.

It seems Brown is due for an outburst, and the Hawks provide him with one of the cushier matchups in the Association.

Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 Rebounds (+112)

From one Boston Jay to the next. Jayson Tatum is averaging 8.4 rebounds per game this season, but a pace-up game and key injury on Atlanta make the plus-odds on his rebounding prop worth a look.

This season, Tatum has played in 23 games against teams that rank in the top 15 of pace (and as mentioned, the Hawks play at the fourth-fastest pace). In this split, he is averaging 9.4 boards per game.

Tatum leads all Boston players in adjusted rebound chance percentage. He sees 12.6 rebound chances per game, which ranks second on the team to only Kristaps Porzingis, who averages 12.9 rebound chances per game.

Boston has a small team, and Porzingis has taken a backseat focus when it comes to rebounding, so it makes sense that Tatum is leading this team in boards per game.

Since Atlanta's starting center, Clint Capela, is out for tonight's matchup, Tatum's status as Boston's lead rebounder should come into play more so than usual.

Even with Capela, the Hawks have been surrendering the ninth-most rebounds per game. Capela sees the 12th-most rebound chances in the NBA and is contesting boards at the fifth-highest rate in the league. His absence on the boards will be felt in this one and should create room for Tatum to make a splash.

These teams met up in November for a matchup where Tatum managed 9.0 rebounds. I'll take the plus-odds that he can follow up on this performance in a pace-up game that will favor small-ball.

Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 Made Threes (+126)

The Cleveland Cavaliers will visit the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night, and I think the value with Donovan Mitchell's made threes prop could be too good to ignore.

The +126 here odds suggest a 44.3% probability, but Mitchell has hit over 3.5 three-pointers in 53.8% of his games this season.

He's shown even more production from downtown as of late. Since the start of 2024, Mitchell has drained more than 3.5 threes in 10 out of his 16 games (62.5% hit rate).

The Cavs come into this one as the rightful 11.5-point favorites. This makes all the sense in the world given that Cleveland currently holds the number two seed in the Eastern Conference, while Washington's abysmal record (9-40) can be rivaled by only the Detroit Pistons (6-43).

But while blowout potential could rear its head in this game, there is a positive correlation between big Cleveland wins and Mitchell's three-point success.

This season, Mitchell has participated in 16 games wherein the Cavs won by at least 10 points. Mitchell cleared over 3.5 made threes in 11 of these contests and hit at least three three-pointers in all but two of these games.

Washington is allowing opposing guards to shoot the three-ball at the 10th-best clip in the league. This could be why Mitchell exceeded 3.5 3PM in each of his two matchups against the Wizards earlier this season and has me siding with the plus-odds on this prop.

FanDuel Sportsbook users can take advantage of this 30% Profit Boost to use on a live wager on any NBA game happening February 7th. See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.