3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Thursday 2/1/24

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using data -- including numberFire's daily basketball projections -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 Points (-108)

LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (hip) have been ruled out for tonight, likely ruining what could have been an exciting NBA on TNT matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics.

While I don't want to stamp this game as an inevitable blowout -- the Celtics are not infallible and have dropped games against good teams and bad -- it certainly seems like that's the direction we're heading in.

Boston is 22-2 at TD Garden, and the Lakers haven't managed a winning record up until this point, even with LeBron and AD.

The Lakers have played three games without Davis this season. They went 0-3 in this span and lost each game by at least 14 points, including a 21.3-point average margin of loss. Add in that the Celtics come in as 14.0-point favorites and this brings me to a Jayson Tatum under play.

Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game this season. He's exceeded 27.5 points in 20 of his 45 games this year. This means that Tatum is scoring under 27.5 points at a 55.5% clip, but the -108 odds imply just a 51.92% probability.

On a normal night, Tatum's under at this line suggests value. Add in the risk of a blowout-based minute restriction for Boston's star, and the under is the side I want to be on.

Tatum has played in 17 Boston games that have been decided by 13 points or more -- he exceeded 27.5 points in just seven of those games. And out of those seven games, three of the contests came against either the Washington Wizards or Indiana Pacers, both of whom rank in the top three of pace and points allowed per game.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tatum sees abridged court time in the fourth quarter, but we can't put all our faith in blowout risk. However, we can have faith in this matchup.

The Lakers are surrendering the second-fewest free-throw attempts (FTA) per game (19.7), only to be rivaled by Boston (19.0). Tatum nets 21.4% of his points from the foul line and relies on opportunities behind the stripe to uphold his big-scoring nights. In a Christmas Day matchup against Los Angeles, Tatum scored just 25 points despite playing 41 minutes.

Tatum is scoring below 27.5 points more often than not, and the potential game environment seems to be advantageous for the under.

Donovan Mitchell Under 6.5 Assists (+100)

Donovan Mitchell is averaging 6.4 assists per game and has surpassed 6.5 assists in just 13 of his 36 games this season.

Mitchell is dishing out less than 6.5 assists at a 63.9% clip, which is noticeably higher than the 50.0% implied probability at +100. Based on this, it seems like the market is handing us friendlier odds on the under than should be.

But if we take a look at Mitchell's recent play, he's actually been exceeding 6.5 assists more often than not. However, Darius Garland (jaw) missed extended time for the Cleveland Cavaliers, forcing Mitchell to take on additional playmaking duties.

In 15 games without Garland, Mitchell recorded over 6.5 dimes in 10 contests. But Garland is back in the lineup for the Cavs, so we should expect a regression in Mitchell's assist numbers. In 21 games alongside Garland this season, Mitchell has eclipsed 6.5 assists on only three occasions.

This speaks volumes, and it might not hurt that the Cavs will be playing the second game of a back-to-back tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies. This season, Mitchell is averaging 3.7 assists when playing the second night of a back-to-back.

He saw similar results last season, too. In seven contests that came in this split, Mitchell averaged 4.4 assists and surpassed 6.5 assists in just one of these games. I'm happy siding with the under at even money.

Jalen Brunson Over 32.5 Points (-108)

We've seen unprecedentedly high NBA game totals this season, but the New York Knicks seem to rarely get in on the fun. The Knicks are playing at the fourth-slowest pace and tout the sixth-best defensive rating in the league, forcing them into more modest game totals.

But a date with the Indiana Pacers could turn tonight's game into a barnburner. Indiana plays at the second-fastest pace and surrenders the third-most points per game.

Since Julius Randle (24.0 points per game) remains out for New York, I think Jalen Brunson is in a great spot to go off in this one.

Brunson averaged 28.9 points per game in January and has been riding the wave of a hot streak with Randle out of the lineup. Dating back to last season, Brunson has played in just four games without Randle, but he's averaging 34.0 points per night in this sample.

The Pacers are letting up the second-most points to guards per 36 minutes. In a December matchup between these two teams, Indiana allowed Brunson to score 28 points -- and this was even with Randle scoring 28 and Donte DiVincenzo scoring a career-high 38 points.

There should be plenty of scoring from the Knicks in this pace-up game, and Randle's absence creates an enticing scoring and shot volume gap. Add in a 3.0-point spread that could see this game go down to the wire, and I like Brunson's chances to have a big night.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.