3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Monday 3/4/24

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

Anthony Edwards Under 26.5 Points (-113)

The Portland Trail Blazers will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, and this meeting leaves me with little faith in any overs.

Portland and Minnesota have had inverse seasons. A 17-42 record has the Blazers sitting in the second-to-last spot in the West while Minnesota's 42-19 record has them up top as the West's second seed.

The Blazers have been getting blown out of games left and right. The injury report -- which features Malcolm Brogdon (out), Scoot Henderson (out), Jerami Grant (doubtful), and Deandre Ayton (questionable) -- hurts their already abysmal case for competing against one of the league's top teams.

Minnesota is a 14.0-point favorite, while a 210.0-point over/under leaves the T-Wolves with just a 112.5-point implied team total. This leads me to Anthony Edwards under 26.5 points.

Edwards is averaging 26.3 points per game this year, so the market has hardly adjusted for the roaring blowout potential. I'm not convinced Edwards and the other Minnesota starters see this game through to the end of the fourth quarter.

If we take out a four-minute game that Edwards left due to an injury, he and the T-Wolves have won 18 games by at least 14 points.

In this split, Edwards is averaging just 22.9 points and scored under 26.5 points in 12 out of 18 of those games.

Further, this matchup situates Portland's seventh-slowest pace of play against Minnesota's sixth-slowest pace.

Edwards has played in eight games wherein the T-Wolves won by at least 14 points against a team that also ranked in the bottom 10 of pace. In this split, he is averaging only 20.9 points and recorded under 26.5 points in 6 out of 8 contests.

The Blazers have managed to surrender the fourth-fewest three-point makes (3PM) in the NBA, probably because of their poor interior defense, which lets up the fifth-most paint points.

This is good news as Edwards' under is concerned. He leads Minnesota in 3PM per game, scoring 29.1% of his points from behind the arc.

This isn't to say that Edwards is not an eligible paint scorer -- he nets 39.8% of his points from this area -- but it seems the numerous bigs on this Minnesota team could be the ones most primed to take advantage of Portland's defensive woes.

FanDuel Research's projections, which are powered by numberFire, anticipate Edwards to score 24.0 points tonight.

LeBron James Over 6.5 Rebounds (-125)

The Oklahoma City Thunder will visit the Los Angeles Lakers for what could be one of the most competitive games on today's slate.

The Thunder are favored by a mere 1.5 points, while a 238.0 over/under is good for the second-largest point total on Monday.

There are plenty of props worth checking out for this Thunder-Lakers showdown, but none are more intriguing than LeBron James' rebounding prop.

On the season, LeBron is averaging an even 7.0 rebounds per game.

He has surpassed 6.5 rebounds in 53.7% of his games, but the -125 odds here imply a 55.5% probability. The value may seem a bit off, but there is a strong reason to believe LeBron can exceed 6.5 boards in this one.

The Lakers play at the league's sixth-fastest pace while the Thunder play at the seventh-fastest pace. A matchup that pits two of the top 10 teams in pace against each other means we should see plenty of shots go up tonight. So far this year, LeBron is astounding on the boards in this situation.

This season, LeBron has played in 14 games against teams that rank in the top 12 of pace. In this split, he has exceeded 6.5 rebounds in 13 out of 14 games. This includes a trio of games against OKC where LeBron averaged 8.7 rebounds.

The correlation between fast-paced games and LeBron's rebounding production is strong, so I'm happy to side with a continuation of this trend.

And for what it's worth, the Thunder are surrendering the sixth-most rebounds per game while our projections have LeBron grabbing 7.8 rebounds tonight.

De'Aaron Fox Over 2.5 Made Threes (+106)

De'Aaron Fox seems primed to nail a trio of triples tonight.

Fox is averaging 2.8 3PM per game this year. He has exceeded 2.5 made threes in 50.9% of his games, so these +106 odds, which indicate a 48.5% probability, show value.

But what's catching my eye, foremost, is his matchup against the Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls cede more three-point attempts (3PA) and 3PM each game than any other team in the Association.

For comparison, Chicago is surrendering 10.5 more 3PA per night than the team that gives up the fewest 3PA (Indiana). We should expect Fox, who leads the charge for the Sacramento Kings, to take advantage.

As mentioned, Fox drains 2.8 three-pointers per game. But if we check out how he has fared against the top 10 teams who let up the most 3PA, he is averaging 3.04 3PM per game.

This split includes one contest against Chicago from last month where Fox went 5-for-11 from downtown.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.