3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 11/15/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Franz Wagner Over 1.5 Made Threes (-142) / Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (-111)

The Orlando Magic will visit the Chicago Bulls in what's projected to be a competitive game (1.0-point spread), and I think Franz Wagner is in for a solid all-around performance against a stat-sacrificing Bulls team.

To start, we'll target Wagner to drain at least two threes. He's averaging 1.9 three-point makes (3PM) per game, and he is shooting from behind the arc at a high rate, taking 5.8 three-point attempts (3PA) per game. On top of that, we should start seeing some regression in his shooting percentage numbers (36.1% three-point percentage last year; 32.8% 3P% this year).

He's made two or more three-balls in seven out of 10 games this year, so the implied odds on this prop (58.7%) are lower than the current hit rate (70.0%).

No team in the league gives up more 3PA than the Bulls do. They allow opponents to shoot a towering 40.7 shots per game from downtown.

Forwards such as Wagner aren't excluded from the fun -- the Bulls allow the second-most 3PA and 3PM to forwards per 36 minutes. Plus, Wagner averages 2.4 3PM on the road versus 1.4 3PM at home, so he should be in a great spot tonight in Chicago.

The odds on Wagner's made threes prop aren't super fun, so I'd look to parlay that with him to record nine-plus rebounds and assists (RA).

Wagner is averaging 9.4 RA and has cleared this prop in seven out of 10 games this season. He's seen a slight uptick in these numbers ever since Wendell Carter Jr. went down with an injury, averaging 9.6 RA and clearing this prop in four out of five games in that time.

While this game's slate-low 216.0 game total can be a bit scary, rebounds should do more of the heavy lifting with this prop, and Chicago allows opponents to stuff the stat sheet.

The Bulls give up the second-most rebounds and third-most assists in the league. To forwards per 36 minutes, they allow the fourth-most rebounds and second-most assists. Wagner plays 33.8 minutes per game and blowout-based minute restrictions shouldn't be present in a game like this.

If you're interested in both of these props, it's nice knowing that there seems to be a positive correlation between the two. In the seven games where Wagner has made two or more threes, he is averaging 9.7 RA.

De'Aaron Fox Over 26.5 Points (-115)

After missing two weeks with an ankle injury, De'Aaron Fox returned to action for the Sacramento Kings on Monday and scored 28 points.

Fox had a rough season opener, netting only 18 points on a 33.3% field-goal percentage and 14.3% 3P%. In three games since, he has put up 39, 37, and the aforementioned 28 points, bringing his early-season average to 30.5 points.

The rising star and potential MVP candidate could find himself having consistent 30-plus point performances this season, so I'd strike while his points prop is still where it is, especially with tonight's matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers give up the 10th-most points to guards per 36 minutes. They allow the eighth-most 3PA to opponents, which is where Fox scores 27.0% of his points. Through four games, Fox is averaging 7.5 3PA, and when paired with the Lakers' propensity to allow this shot with the league's seventh-highest make percentage, we could see Fox score quite a bit from behind the arc.

Los Angeles is allowing more second-chance points to guards per 36 minutes than any other team in the league. They also let up the ninth-most points in the paint (PITP) to guards per 36 minutes, and Fox scores 47.5% of his PITP. Plus, he's been drawing six fouls per game (seventh-most in NBA), so we could see quite a few drives in the paint turn into visits to the foul line.

LA's defensive shortcomings allowed Fox to go for 37 points against the Lakers earlier this season, and though the game did go into overtime, he scored all of his points in regulation.

He also averaged 29.8 points in four games against the Lakers last season, so all signs point to another stellar scoring outing.

Rudy Gobert To Record a Double-Double (-105)

Rudy Gobert has recorded a double-double in eight out of 10 games this season (and missed one double-double by a single point), so the 51.22% implied probability here feels off.

Gobert is averaging 11.9 points and 12.8 rebounds per game. He's grabbed double-digit boards in every game this season.

His competition, the Phoenix Suns, isn't sacrificing a whole lot of rebounds. But tonight we will see the debut of the Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal trio, which probably means that the Suns' status as the team that shoots the fifth-fewest shots per game probably won't stick much longer. Look for Phoenix to pick up their pace tonight, which can allow Gobert to continue his double-digit rebound streak.

As you could probably guess, Gobert scores 70.6% of his points in the paint. The Suns allow the sixth-most PITP per game, including the sixth-most per 36 minutes to centers.

The remaining of Gobert's points are scored at the free-throw line (29.4%). Though he is not a great foul shooter (63.8% FT% in his career), the opportunity never hurts, especially when we need only 10 points. Phoenix allows centers to draw the seventh-most fouls per 36 minutes, and we could see the Suns' new-look rotation get even sloppier with the debut of their new starting five.

The spread is fairly close (6.0 points), Gobert's matchup is great, and history shows he is a double-double machine this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.