3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 11/1/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Tyus Jones Over 12.5 Points (-111)

Just one week into the NBA season, the Washington Wizards are already shaping up to be a dumpster fire, but they do have a 114.5 implied total for tonight's game against the Atlanta Hawks -- Tyus Jones should be able to score 13 of those points.

Last season, the Hawks finished 26th in points allowed per game. Through four games this season, they rank 21st in this regard (tied with the Houston Rockets).

Atlanta is particularly sacrificial to guards. They allowed the ninth-most points per game to point guards a year ago and are giving up the fourth-most points per night to the position this season.

Jones, meanwhile, is averaging 13.7 points per game. Though he averaged just 10.6 points last season, he did see quite the increase in production in his 22 games as a starter, averaging 16.4 points in the split. Now that the Wizards' depth has cleared up and Jones has moved into a starting role, we should see similar production to his numbers as a starter from last year.

The breakdown of Jones' scoring performances this season is as follows: 16, 14, and 11 points. While Jones failed to clear tonight's prop in his most recent game, it should be noted that he was going up against a Boston Celtics team that ranked third in defensive rating against guards last season (and fourth so far this season).

The Hawks gave up the ninth-most three-point attempts (3PA) to starting guards last season and have been giving up the second-most 3PA in this split this season. Jones is fairly trigger-happy behind the arc (5.3 3PA per game) and could be even more so tonight against a team that allows guards to shoot the ball at a high rate.

The Hawks' tendencies led to Jones' averaging 17.5 points in two games against Atlanta last season, all while only playing an average of 24 minutes. He should see more run tonight and can have a good scoring day.

P.J. Washington Over 19.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

I think the market is undervaluing PJ Washington tonight. Last season, he averaged 20.6 points + rebounds (PR) per game, and his numbers have only gone up as he enters his fifth season in the NBA.

Through three games, he is recording 24.4 PR per game, and I can't help but side with him in what should be a favorable matchup against the Houston Rockets.

The Rockets are permitting the 10th-most points and 4th-most boards per night. Last season, they gave up the third-most points per game and maintained the second-worst defensive rating.

Houston also allowed the most 3PA per game (and is allowing the third-most this season), as well as the third-highest three-point percentage (3P%) and ninth-highest field-goal percentage (FG%) to starting forwards. This paved the way for Washington to go off against Houston in the one game that he matched up against them last year as he recorded 24 PR in that one.

Last year, Washington averaged 5.9 3PA per game off a 34.8% 3P%. Through three games in 2023-24, he has struggled behind the arc, posting a 21.4% 3P%. The fact that he's still averaging 17.7 points per game, even with this abysmal percentage, is a great sign for this prop. He doesn't necessarily need to find his three-point jumper to clear this bar, but if Washington does see a return to his old numbers, it will give him a boost that the market doesn't seem to account for.

Domantas Sabonis To Record 14+ Rebounds (+135)

Domantas Sabonis has grabbed 14-plus boards in each of his last four regular-season games against the Golden State Warriors.

He's also hit this mark in six of his last seven regular-season games versus the Warriors, averaging a towering 15.6 rebounds over that span.

Now, the Warriors aren't great on the boards, but they're not terrible, either. Last season, Golden State ranked 16th in overall rebounds allowed and surrendered the 5th-most offensive rebounds. This season has been more of the same -- they rank 15th in rebounds allowed and are giving up the 11th-most offensive boards. They also maintain the 12th-worst defensive rebounding rate.

But when it comes to Sabonis, he will make a meal out of any below-average rebounding team, as demonstrated by his history against Golden State. Last season, he led the league in rebound chances and placed second in rebounds per game -- all while leading the NBA in deferred rebounds.

He enters tonight's game leading the league in rebound chances, and his deferral numbers are a bit down from last year. He is averaging 15.0 boards through three games and should thrive against a Warriors squad that is averaging the eighth-most shot attempts per game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.