3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 11/9/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 28.5 Points (-113)

There are only two games on tonight's NBA slate, but a Milwaukee Bucks-Indiana Pacers showdown should afford some players to have a monstrous night on the stat sheet. The total for this game stands at a juicy 243.0, which makes more than enough sense when you consider that Indiana is allowing the fifth-most points per game and Milwaukee is allowing the sixth-most.

The first player we'll target to go off tonight is none other than Giannis Antetokounmpo. Last season, 29-plus points was the norm for Giannis, who averaged 31.1 points.

He's averaging just 24.4 points through seven games this season, but that includes his 15-point performance in last night's game, which was cut short due to an ejection.

It's time we see some regression to last year's numbers, and there's no better matchup for Giannis than the Pacers.

Indiana is allowing the fourth-most points per 36 minutes to forwards. Check one.

Giannis scores 64.3% of his points in the paint (PITP) and 23.4% from the foul line. Not a single team in the NBA allows more PITP than the Pacers do (including to forwards per 36 minutes). Indiana also gives up the third-most free-throw attempts per game -- the main methods in which Giannis scores line up perfectly with where Indiana is most sacrificial.

The Pacers fared similarly in these regards last season, which allowed Giannis to average 34.7 points in three games against them (all while only playing 30.3 minutes per game). Be on the lookout for more of the same tonight.

Myles Turner Over 24.5 Pts + Reb (-115)

Next up is Myles Turner, who is primed for a great game opposite a struggling Milwaukee defense.

The Bucks allow the fifth-most rebounds per game, and more importantly, the most rebounds to centers per 36 minutes.

Milwaukee doesn't permit big stats only on the boards to centers -- they also allow the fifth-most points per 36 minutes to the position.

Turner is averaging a combined 25.6 points plus rebounds (PR) this season. He's hit the over on this prop in four out of seven games, but there's good reason why he sometimes hasn't made this mark.

In two out of the three games where Turner failed to record 25-plus PR, the outcomes of the games were decided by 23 or more points, resulting in blowout-based minute restrictions. This shouldn't happen tonight, as the spread sits at a tight 2.0 points.

For a center, Turner scores a surprising amount of his points (26.3%) from behind the arc. The Bucks allow the sixth-most three-point makes to centers per 36 minutes.

Further, Milwaukee allows the fourth-most points per possession to the roll man on the pick-and-roll, and Turner averages the sixth-most points in the league off the pick-and-roll.

He averaged 28.7 PR in three games against the Bucks last season, and I think tonight's matchup will see Turner continuing his noted success.

Franz Wagner Over 4.5 Rebounds (-122)

Moving down to the Orlando Magic-Atlanta Hawks matchup -- where the two teams will face off in Mexico City -- I am looking for Franz Wagner to grab five boards tonight.

Wagner is averaging 5.6 rebounds per game and has cleared this prop in five out of seven contests.

Now that Wendell Carter Jr. will miss extended time due to a hand injury, Orlando will need some extra rebounding help, and Wagner should play a role. Carter led the team in rebounds (8.6 per night) prior to his injury, and in the last two games without him, Wagner secured five rebounds in both.

Wagner ranks second among Orlando starters in adjusted rebound chance percentage, and this matchup against the Hawks should be decent.

Atlanta shoots the fourth-most shots per game but has the 12th-best FG%. A high game total (231.0) should pave a path for ample rebounding opportunities. Plus, no team in the league allows fewer rebounds to opponents than the Magic do.

Orlando's depth is strange. They currently have 12 players who are averaging more than 11.0 minutes per game, which makes it difficult to gauge what kind of opportunities a given player will see on an average night. However, Wagner leads the team in minutes per game (33.6), so I like his chances to grab five boards based on the fairly meaty opportunities he will see as well as well as Carter's absence.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.