3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 1/4/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Giannis Antetokoumpo Under 34.5 Points (-115)

We've got a pair of nationally televised NBA games tonight, and the first game up is a matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and San Antonio Spurs.

This contest has a meaty 247.5 over/under, which leaves us with a higher-than-normal points line for Giannis Antetokounmpo.

It's no secret that Giannis can go off. He's scored 40-plus points on four occasions this season, all against teams that rank in the bottom 10 of defensive rating. But despite the fact that the Spurs are one of those teams that fare in the bottom 10, I still think siding with the under is the move when targeting Giannis.

Giannis is averaging 30.8 points per game this season. He has surpassed 34.5 points in just 10 out of his 33 games this season, giving the under a 69.7% hit rate.

The Spurs give up more three-point makes (3PM) than any other team in the league, but we shouldn't expect Giannis to be a beneficiary of this. He has failed to drain a three-pointer in 23 of his contests this season.

We should still expect plenty of Milwaukee points from downtown. The matchup couldn't be better, and the Bucks could get lazy as they play the second night of a back-to-back on the road -- just not from Giannis.

The Spurs give up the 10th-most points to power forwards. However, they sacrifice the fourth-most points overall, meaning they are able to limit power forwards more so than other positions.

Giannis relies on foul shots to net 25.0% of his points. The Spurs give up the 15th-fewest free-throw attempts (FTA) to forwards per 36 minutes.

In a December matchup against San Antonio, Giannis scored a season-low 11 points despite playing 34 minutes and the Bucks netting 132 total points. He was granted just six FTA in this game (he averages 11.3 FTA this season), and the Bucks shot a towering 49 3PA.

Given the matchup and second night of a back-to-back, I think we'll see another game in which Milwaukee is trigger-happy from downtown, which should limit Giannis' output to an extent.

Michael Porter Jr. Over 23.5 Pts + Reb (-108)

Our second and final game on tonight's slate comes between the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets. A 3.5-point spread and 235.5 over/under is indicative of the exciting game we can expect, and I'm looking to Michael Porter Jr. to put up big numbers.

Porter is averaging 23.8 combined points and rebounds (PR) this season. The Warriors let up the 12th-most points to forwards per 36 minutes and can be vulnerable on the boards, so I like this matchup for Porter.

MPJ scores 51.5% of his points from behind the arc and leads all Nuggets in 3PM per game. Golden State allows opponents the 13th-most 3PA per game and the eighth-most when playing at home. And over the last month, no team in the league is sacrificing more 3PA at home than the Warriors. Look for Porter to get a big boost from downtown.

I think it's best to target MPJ's PR prop rather than his points prop because the market has him set for just 6.5 rebounds tonight. On the season, he is averaging 7.5 rebounds per game.

Porter has played the Warriors twice this season, averaging 27.0 PR in that span (25 and 29 PR performances). In seven career games against GSW in which Porter has played at least 28 minutes (he averages 31.2 minutes per game), he has netted 29.9 PR per contest.

Trayce Jackson-Davis Over 10.5 Points (+104)

Since Draymond Green (suspension) has been out and coach Steve Kerr added Trayce Jackson-Davis to the rotation, the Warriors' rookie is averaging 11.5 points per game.

TJD has since been added to Golden State's starting lineup, and Kerr stated that he will continue with this new lineup for the time being. TJD is averaging 13.5 points in two games as a starter.

The Nuggets have the eighth-best defensive rating in the league. But they give up the 13th-most paint points to forwards per 36 minutes, and the 15th-most paint points overall. TJD is netting 80.0% of his points from the paint. Add in that Denver limits opposing teams to the third-fewest 3PA, and it seems even more likely that Golden State will have to look for production down low more than they are used to.

TJD can be a foul-trouble candidate, but the Nuggets are drawing the seventh-fewest fouls per game. numberFire is projecting TJD to score 12.0 points tonight, so I'm happy to take the plus money here.

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a No-Sweat Same Game Parlay for the aforementioned NBA on TNT games. If you're as bullish on these props as I am, I'd consider taking advantage of the promo.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.