3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 12/11/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Desmond Bane Over 6.5 1st Quarter Points (-113)

Desmond Bane is averaging 7.0 points in the first quarter this season, and there is solid evidence to show he could reach that average tonight.

Beyond his average, which surpasses the over for this prop, Bane has been a particularly successful first-quarter scorer as of late. He's scored seven-plus first-quarter points in six of his last seven games, averaging 8.7 points in that span.

Tonight, he'll go up against the Dallas Mavericks, a team that allows the fourth-most points in the first quarter. Not only does Dallas allow opponents to score early, but they are particularly sacrificial in the same areas where Bane thrives.

Bane scores 49.3% of his first-quarter points from behind the arc, and the Mavericks let up the ninth-most three-point makes (3PM) in this timeframe. Additionally, the Mavs cede the 10th-most points in the paint to start games, which is where Bane scores 34.6% of his points.

This has allowed Bane to average 11.0 points in the first quarter across two games against Dallas this season (15- and seven-point performances). The Memphis Grizzlies lack depth at the guard position with Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, and Luke Kennard all out, and Bane has proven he can capitalize on the extra early-game scoring opportunities.

DeMar DeRozan Under 25.5 Points (-108)

DeMar DeRozan has scored 26-plus points in just four of his 21 games this season. The 80.9% hit rate on the under for this prop seems overpowering, but Zach LaVine is out for the Chicago Bulls tonight. This correlates with higher scoring performances from DeRozan, but I still think he stays under 26 points against the Milwaukee Bucks.

DeRozan is averaging 21.1 points in games alongside LaVine, but in four games without LaVine, that average spikes to 24.5 points. Even still, he has failed to score 26-plus points in three out of four LaVine-less games, and the Bucks shouldn't be an easy matchup, either.

Milwaukee allows the 15th-fewest points to small forwards. While this is a middle-of-the-pack standing, they do allow the ninth-fewest free-throw attempts per game, and DeRozan relies on 25.8% of his points from the foul line.

The Bucks also give up the ninth-fewest points off of turnovers, and DeRozan scores 17.3% of his points via opposing turnovers.

In a November matchup between these two teams, the Bucks shut DeRozan down, allowing him only 11 points off of 37 minutes. Granted, DeRozan did shoot 21.4% from the field in that game, which is lower than what we should expect from him tonight.

The Bulls have a 110.5 implied team total tonight. In 14 games where Chicago has scored 110 points or fewer, DeRozan is averaging just 20.6 points. While LaVine's absence creates more responsibility, I don't think it will be enough to get DeRozan over the hump.

Nikola Jokic Over 53.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (+110)

I'm expecting a big game from Nikola Jokic, so much so that I think it's worth targeting the alternate markets to get plus odds on his combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop.

Jokic is averaging 51.0 PRA this season. But a close spread, high game total, and a date with the Atlanta Hawks should contribute to a 54-plus PRA outing tonight.

The Hawks let up the fourth-most points, second-most assists, and 11th-most rebounds per game. To centers per 36 minutes, they fare even worse, allowing the third-most points, fifth-most assists, and ninth-most rebounds.

Atlanta has a weak paint defense, allowing the fourth-most points per game in this area. Jokic, meanwhile, scores 17.2 paint points each game (third-most in the NBA).

Look out for some additional PR chances for Jokic on putbacks. The Hawks are letting opponents get off the second-most field-goal attempts on putbacks, and Jokic is parlaying offensive rebounds with putback points at the sixth-highest rate in the league.

For some players, days off don't have a particularly strong correlation with an increase in performance. But for Jokic, rest is everything. There have been five instances where Jokic has had two or more days of rest in between games this season. He has cleared this prop in four of those games, averaging 54.6 PRA in that span.

I also find interest in the 122.5 implied team total for the Denver Nuggets. Jokic is averaging 55.5 PRA in six games where Denver has scored 120 points or more. The Nuggets have scored 115 or more points on nine occasions this season -- Jokic is averaging 56.0 PRA in that sample. Adjusting Jokic's line to get to plus odds seems worthwhile.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.