3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 1/19/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Derrick White Over 13.5 Points (+102)

The Denver Nuggets will visit the Boston Celtics for what could be a preview of this year's NBA Finals, at least as far as FanDuel Sportsbook is concerned. FanDuel has a Finals meetup between Denver and Boston at +550 (shortest), so tonight should be a thrilling snippet of what could come. The Celtics are 20-0 at TD Garden, and while this game's outcome, alone, is something to watch out for, I also think there's lots of value to be had with player props.

Derrick White missed Boston's last game due to an ankle injury but is good to go for tonight. White is a do-it-all player who has the best plus/minus in the NBA, and I think the market is underselling how great of a scorer he can be.

White is averaging 15.9 points per game this season. He's eclipsed 13.5 points in 18 of his last 25 games (72.0% hit rate on the over) and should play a major role in what might be Boston's toughest game yet.

The Celtics have blown out a lot of teams this year, meaning White and his teammates have had plenty of nights where they were spared from reaching their full scoring potential. Boston enters this game favored by 7.0 points, which is probably a little too kind. The Celtics are unreal at home, but Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are the most likely candidates to halt Boston's franchise-record home win streak.

The point is, this game should be close. And in 21 Celtic games that have been decided by 12 points or fewer, White is averaging 18.7 points per contest (18.2 points in regulation). I'll gladly side with the over.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 9.5 Points (-102)

Staying with the same game, let's target Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's points prop. KCP is averaging 10.2 points per game and has cleared 9.5 points in five straight games, averaging 13.0 points per night in that span.

Denver's supporting cast is nice to target when it comes to point props because the Nuggets share the wealth more than most teams. Jokic is the most dominant player in the league, but he's shooting just the 32nd-most field-goal attempts per game.

This gives players such as KCP opportunities to score, and I think we'll see a double-digit KCP scoring performance against Boston.

The Celtics are allowing opponents to fire off the fifth-most three-point attempts (3PA) per game. In the last month, Boston has surrendered the third-most 3PA, including the second-most to guards.

KCP nets 44.7% of his points from behind the arc and shoots threes at a solid 40.7% clip. He also sees some scoring chances in the paint, netting 24.9% of his points from that area. Look for Boston to collapse on Jokic down low, and in turn, for Jokic to feed the ball to KCP off of a cut to the basket. The Celtics are allowing the eighth-most paint points to guards and could get beat on the cut in an effort to contain the Joker.

Dejounte Murray Over 31.5 Pts + Ast (-102)

The big injury news of the day is that Trae Young (illness) is out for the Atlanta Hawks -- prepare for a big game from Dejounte Murray.

The market has, obviously, accounted for Young's absence. Murray is averaging 25.8 combined points and assists (PA) this season, well below 31.5 PA.

But Murray's numbers sans Young are encouraging enough to have me siding with the over even at this line of 31.5. When sharing the court with Young, Murray is averaging 23.6 PA per 36 minutes. When Young is off the court, Murray is netting 33.1 PA per 36 minutes.

This is a pretty astounding spike, and any per 36-minute metric is pretty on the money. Murray is playing 34.6 minutes per game, and Young's absence would only increase the former's time on the court.

Young has missed a pair of games for Atlanta this season -- Murray averaged 35.5 PA in that split. Last year, Young missed seven games for the Hawks -- Murray averaged 33.6 PA in that sample.

Plus, the Miami Heat gift opposing shooting guards with a friendly matchup. They surrender the seventh-most points and fourth-most three-point makes (3PM) to this position. Murray scores 32.9% of his points from downtown and will take on the lion's share of scoring duties for an Atlanta team that is missing two starters (Young and De'Andre Hunter).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.