3 NBA Player Prop Best Bets for Monday 11/4/24

The beauty of the NBA is you will never be short on prop-betting options for a given slate.

From points to steals and three-pointers, FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds are overflowing with possibilities. We're here to help you sift through it all.

Using FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing on FanDuel.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NBA Player Prop Picks Today

Domantas Sabonis Over 36.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-104)

Domantas Sabonis is amassing 40.8 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) through six games. This is no early-season fad, as Sabonis averaged a stampeding 41.3 PRA a season ago.

A date with the slow-paced Miami Heat awaits, but I still like Sabonis to exceed a manageable 36.5 PRA.

Let's check out Sabonis' underlying metrics. He's accumulating 12.3 potential assists and 23.2 rebound chances per game. Based on the league-average conversion rates for these stat categories, Sabonis is expected to net 20.1 combined rebounds and assists (RA) per game yet he's averaging just 19.3 RA. There's room for positive regression here.

The Heat are allowing the fourth-most rebounds per 36 minutes to opposing centers. They're also letting up the 12th-most putback opportunities, which should pave a path for Sabonis to pair offensive boards with lay-ins.

Miami is playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the NBA, but a close spread (1.0) and healthy game total (225.0) offer hope for a solid game environment. Last year, Sabonis averaged 41.8 PRA and cleared 36.5 PRA in 21 out of 24 games (87.5% of contests) against teams that ranked in the bottom 10 of pace. That includes 38 and 49 PRA performances against this very Heat team.

Luka Doncic Over 48.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-118)

Let's look for another stat monster to paint the box score. The Indiana Pacers will visit the Dallas Mavericks for a game that features a close spread (4.5) and slate-high over/under (236.5). That puts Luka Doncic in a position to explode.

Doncic has had a tough start to the season. His 40.4% FG% and 31.1% 3P% are at career-worsts by a significant margin, and he's converting potential rebounds and assists at a lower rate than normal. He's due for regression across the board, and I think we'll see his first spike game of the year against Indiana.

Last year, Doncic averaged a massive 54.1 PRA in contests where he played at least 30 minutes that also featured a total between 230 and 240 points. He sailed past 48.5 PRA in 71.8% of these games.

Indiana is famous for their fast-paced games. They ran at the second-fastest pace in the league last season. While they rank just 13th in pace this season, they come in at sixth in tempo across their last three contests. Doncic averaged 51.9 PRA in games against teams that fared in the top 10 of pace last year.

Jayson Tatum Over 3.5 Made Threes (-115)

The Boston Celtics figure to put on a clinic from downtown on Monday night. Not only are the C's averaging a league-leading 19.1 three-point makes (3PM) and 50.3 three-point attempts (3PA), but they'll also take on an Atlanta Hawks team that is surrendering 16.9 3PM (most in NBA), 41.0 3PA (second-most), and a 41.1% three-point percentage (highest) to opposing teams.

Jayson Tatum, Payton Pritchard, and Derrick White all currently have their made threes prop set at 3.5 with -115 odds on the over. While each of these players never pass up an open trio, Tatum (11.3 3PA) understandably has a higher shot volume than Pritchard (9.4 3PA) and White (8.7 3PA). He's the guy I want in on tonight.

Through seven games, Tatum is averaging 3.9 made threes per game. However, he's been shooting threes at just a 34.2% clip, including a poor 22.7% clip across his last four games. He's due for positive shooting regression and has tallied -0.4 made threes over expectation this season. Based on Tatum's three-year rolling 3P% average, we have him down for 4.2 expected 3PM per game this season.

His gaudy shot volume, alone, could help him clear 3.5 made threes handedly. Add in this matchup against Atlanta, and shooting regression could be primed to rear its head. As mentioned, the Hawks are coughing up the highest 3P% (41.1%) in the league. They're also letting opposing forwards shoot threes at an insane 42.6% clip. Atlanta has allowed at least one opposing starter drain a minimum of four threes in each of their seven games this season. Last season, Tatum attempted 40 threes in four games against the Hawks.

Jaylen Brown (hip) will sit this game out, so Tatum should shoulder an even heavier load than normal on offense. Further, the Hawks are playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA, so this matchup checks all the boxes for Tatum to have a busy night from downtown.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.