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3 NBA Best Bets for Friday 10/25/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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3 NBA Best Bets for Friday 10/25/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

On top of that, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a promo for all customers betting on NBA games happening Friday, October 25th!

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Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks

Over 226.5 (-110)

Half of the challenge in picking lines early in the NBA season is figuring out who these teams really are. With very small sample sizes in the palm of our hands, it's natural to turn to last season's numbers. The Indiana Pacers check that box as they scored only 115 points in their season opener while being tied for the league's 11th-slowest pace of play.

That's not like the team we saw in the 2023-24 season, which touted the second-quickest pace while logging a league-high 123.3 points per game (PPG). Getting Indiana against the New York Knicks with only a 226.5 game total feels like a great spot for the over.

First off, both teams are mostly healthy with their top scoring options available. The Knicks gave up 95 field goal attempts and 132 points against the Boston Celtics on opening night. Each mark suggests the Pacers should be able to get up and down the court as they logged a league-high 92.7 field goal attempts per game in the 2023-24 season.

They were an efficient three-point shooting team too at 37.4% (ninth-highest), which could challenge New York's perimeter defense that gave up an absurd 61 three-point attempt to Boston on Tuesday (the fifth-most in NBA history).

Total Points

Over
Oct 25 11:40pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Despite the season-opening loss, the Knicks were still able to win the points in the paint battle against the Celtics, recording 42 to Boston's 30. While Karl-Anthony Towns garners plenty of attention for his career 39.8% three-point percentage, his ability to attack the rim is still a factor in potentially increasing New York's points in the paint this season.

Indiana gave up 50 points in the paint in its season opener, and the Pacers allowed the second-most points in the paint per game last season (56.7). I'm still very skeptical about this defense that turned in the seventh-worst defensive rating a season ago.

In last year's regular-season clashes, we were getting totals well past 230 when Indiana and New York met. numberFire's game projections are giving the over a 62.0% likelihood compared to the current -110 odds' implied probability of 52.4%. Each offense should have an advantage in this one; give me the over.

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers Over 119.5 (-106)

The Cleveland Cavaliers could be one of the most interesting teams to watch as the season unfolds as they carry -1200 odds to make the playoffs and are rolling out a new-look offense under coach Kenny Atkinson. Despite holding several guards that excel at pushing the pace -- such as Donovan Mitchell -- Cleveland often opted for a slow pace of play (seventh-slowest last season) while logging the sixth-fewest field goal attempts per contest in the 2023-24 season.

The Cavs already showed some changes in their season-opening 136-106 win over the Toronto Raptors. They feature the 14th-quickest pace thus far and scored 16 fast break points in the win. For reference, 16.0 fast break PPG was the fourth-highest average last season. This is something that could keep up as two of Atkinson's four teams with the Brooklyn Nets finished among the Association's top-five quickest paces. Cleveland's offense is relying less on the pick and roll, as well, focusing more on player movement via split actions -- something the Golden State Warriors have leaned on for years.

Overall, this an offense that could see a decent jump in production after last season's mediocre 114.7 offensive rating (15th-lowest). That was on show with 136 points on Wednesday, and Friday's opponent features another underwhelming defense.

Home Team Total Points

Over
Oct 25 11:40pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Detroit Pistons featured the sixth-highest defensive rating in the 2023-24 season while allowing the fourth-most points in the paint per game. The Cavs posted a whopping 68 points in the paint in their first game. Consistent split actions means plenty of post touches for this offense, and Evan Mobley seems to be stepping into a larger scoring role after posting 25 points while making 9-of-14 field goal attempts (64.3%) in his first game.

Detroit's starting power forward Tobias Harris (6-foot-8) is giving up some size against Mobley (6-foot-11), and starting center Jalen Duren held a 118.3 defensive rating last season. The success around the rim should continue for the Wine and Gold, and Cleveland's increased pace should fuel over 119.5 points.

Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets

Rockets -3 (-112)

The Houston Rockets performed well at home in the 2023-24 season, carrying a 27-14 record (tied for the eighth-best). They were one of the best teams to back against the spread (ATS) too, covering 56.3% of games (fifth-best). Following a five-point loss at home against the Charlotte Hornets, I like Houston's chances of taking off tonight.

Injuries are already playing a factor as the Memphis Grizzlies could be without Jaren Jackson Jr. (hamstring), Gregory Jackson (metatarsal repair), Luke Kennard (foot), and Vince Williams Jr. (leg). Meanwhile, Steven Adams (knee/calf) is expected to be the only notable absence for the Rockets. This isn't a major loss, either, as Alperen Sengun is blooming into one of the best big men that the NBA has to offer.

Despite outshooting the Hornets by 18 field goal attempts, Houston lost thanks to a 36.9% field goal percentage (FG%) and a 30.3% three-point percentage. This kind of inefficiency probably won't keep up, especially when the Grizz just allowed 124 points paired with a 119.2 defensive rating in their last game.

If Jackson is out of the lineup, Memphis' defense takes a big dip. We saw first-round rookie Zach Edey fill in sparingly in the Grizzlies' opener, but he posted a dreadful 135.8 defensive rating in only 14 minutes of play. Not a great start for Edey, who holds the shortest odds to win Rookie of the Year (+400). Houston was in the top half of points in the paint per game a season ago.

Spread Betting

Houston Rockets
Oct 26 12:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Memphis threw up the sixth-most three-point shots per game in the 2023-24 season, and the Grizz picked up right where they left off with 45 shots from three-point land on Wednesday. The Rockets were around the middle of the pack in three-point shots allowed per game last season while holding opponents to only 34.8% from beyond the arc (the lowest).

numberFire's game projections are giving Houston a 67.1% likelihood to cover the spread, compared to the -112 odds carrying a 52.8% implied probability. Look for the Rockets to lift off on Friday night.


Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.


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