3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 12/11/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks
Under 237.5 (-108)
The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks will meet up in the NBA Cup quarterfinals. The winner will move on to face the Milwaukee Bucks in Vegas this weekend for a bid to the championship.
The Knicks are favored by 8.0 points, which feels like an efficient mark. Instead of choosing one side, my favorite way to bet this game is the under.
Atlanta (3rd) is one of the fastest teams in basketball, but their scheme could get bogged down by the slow Knicks (26th). Atlanta's games versus bottom-10 pace teams are averaging 231.6 total points.
The Knicks and Hawks met up in November for a game that totaled 237 points, a hook below tonight's over/under. The problem with that total? New York and Atlanta went a combined 37-for-85 (43.5% 3P%) from downtown in that game. We rarely see two opponents get that hot from distance, and their three-point luck should look different this time around.
Neither team sees much volume from long range. Atlanta and New York each attempt an average of 36.2 threes per game, tied for the 12th-fewest in the NBA.
Total Points
The nature of this single-elimination NBA Cup game could certainly have an effect on the total. Both clubs are one win away from Vegas and three wins away from the NBA Cup prize money. In turn, it wouldn't be surprising to see more quality defensive efforts than normal from both teams.
While it may just be anecdotal, last night's NBA Cup quarterfinal games totaled just 223 and 222 points despite two of those four teams ranking in the top 10 of pace.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
Warriors Moneyline (+110)
Warriors Over 110.5 Points (-118)
Over in the West, the Golden State Warriors (14-9) and Houston Rockets (16-8) will square off for a quarterfinals game that's shaping up to be a barnburner.
Stephen Curry and the Warriors have been more dominant than expected this year and check in with the eighth-best net rating (+4.8) in the league. I don't think any NBA fan is complaining about getting to watch Steph in big games again.
The Rockets have been a fun story in their own right. Houston's homegrown group is seeing major results under head coach Ime Udoka, holding the fifth-best record and the sixth-best net rating (+7.0) in the league. I don't think I've bet against the Rockets this season, but that's the direction I'm heading tonight.
Moneyline
Golden State is 2-0 against Houston this season. Both games were won by six points and one contest was decided in overtime. That's not the reason I like the Warriors tonight. It's a tall task to beat the same team three times in just a little over one month.
I'm most impressed by Golden State's defense, which ranks fourth in the league. Houston has them beat, checking in with the second-best defensive rating, but in a game that is primed to go down to the wire, I'll side with the team that has a closer.
The Rockets shoot threes at a 33.0% clip (fifth-worst in the NBA) and free throws at a 76.9% clip (eighth-worst). Lacking one true offensive weapon down the stretch, Houston is a harsh 7-7 in games that were decided by single digits. Those end-of-game struggles could burn them tonight.
Where there's a will, there's a way with Steph and Draymond Green, and they don't seem to be taking their first season without Klay Thompson lightly. Golden State continues to pop up as a potential trade destination for players around the league, and I'm sure the Warriors are welcoming the chance to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder this weekend in Vegas. Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Buddy Hield are all shooting threes at a 41.7% rate or higher and could balloon the three-point gap against Houston's meh shooters. That's a big reason why I like them to score over 110.5 points tonight.
Golden State is 12-3 when they score more than 110.5 points. Houston is 2-3 when they allow more than 110.5 points (in regulation). It goes without saying that there's a correlation here, but Golden State has a particularly strong track record when they surpass this points benchmark.
Away Team Total Points
With +110 odds available on their moneyline, I'll take the Warriors to advance to the NBA Cup semis in style.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.