3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/5/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Oneil Cruz to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

Oneil Cruz is on a roll to start July, totaling three hits over his last two games. This was good for a .333 batting average during the span, and he reached two bases in one of these games.

On Friday, Cruz will square off with the New York Mets' Luis Severino. The 30-year-old starter has been up and down over his last three appearances. For example, he gave up at least four runs in two of the outings but gave up no runs in his other appearance. Severino is touting a 4.66 ERA while opponents are hitting .253 against him over his last three.

It's been a solid season for Severino with his 3.98 ERA and 4.36 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA); both are improvements over last year's 6.65 ERA and 4.78 SIERA. Still, his numbers are down enough for Cruz to take advantage.

Additionally, Severino's most-used pitch -- a four-seam fastball (35.1%) -- tailors to Cruz's strengths. The towering 6-foot-7 shortstop is hitting .300 against four-seam fastballs this season, per FanGraphs.

Previous head-to-head matchups help Cruz's case, too. Over six career at-bats against Severino, Cruz has recorded three hits. That's a blistering .500 batting average.

Elly De La Cruz to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

Since his big league call up in 2023, the Cincinnati Reds' Elly De La Cruz has been the definition of hot and cold. Elly is on another one of his patented hot streaks, carrying a .346 batting average over his last 12 games. Slugging has been De La Cruz's middle name during the stretch with a .712 slugging percentage (SLG).

The Redlegs' infielder has a good chance of continuing his hot streak versus the Detroit Tigers' Reese Olson. Is this the same Olson that has a 3.32 ERA and 3.80 SIERA? That doesn't exactly sound like a favorable matchup. But let's look at the numbers.

First off, Olson's pitcher usage shakes out pretty well for De La Cruz. The second-year starter features a slider (27.8% usage), four-seam fastball (23.9%), changeup (22.1%), and sinker (19.9%). Elly is batting .265 against four-seamers and .390 versus sinkers. His numbers dip to .220 and .180 against sliders and changeups. Fortunately for De La Cruz, Olson's usage for his changeup has fell to 12.4% and 16.3% over his last two games.

Not only does Elly hit well against heaters, he also has a good chance of barely seeing the pitch he struggles the most against (changeups).

Olson also gives up a lot of hard hits, sitting in the bottom 7% in hard-hit percentage. We know De La Cruz can slug as he's among the top 15% in all of average exit velocity, bat speed, and barrel percentage, per Savant.

Elly reaching at least two bases looks even more likely considering Olson's form. The Tigers' hurler posted a 5.73 ERA in June.

Along with two bases, De La Cruz recording a double (+300) or triple (+1600) is intriguing.

Salvador Perez to Record an RBI (-145)

The Kansas City Royals, who are among the top half of baseball in runs scored, face a struggling starter tonight in Kyle Freeland, who has a 7.94 ERA and 5.30 SIERA. Kansas City is also one of MLB's best against left-handed pitchers with a .261 batting average (tied for eighth-highest) in the split. We should expect some runs from the Royals tonight.

Which batter is poised to knock in a run? It could be the veteran catcher Salvador Perez. Salvy has seven RBIs over his last six games. He's had success against Freeland with two hits in six career at-bats (.333).

Perez is raking against sinkers (.318) and curveballs (.407), and Freeland's usage for these pitches are up. For example, his sinker usage was at 36.3% and 34.8% in his last two games compared to his season average of 26.2%. Freeland's curveball was at 20.0% and 24.6%, compared to his season-long mark of 18.6%.

Both spikes in usage plays right into Salvy's hands. Recording an RBI looks even more likely when you consider the batters before Perez. He's in the clean-up spot while Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino are hitting second and third, respectively. Witt is hitting .389 over his last 10, and Pasquantino is at .350 during the same stretch.

Perez should have chances with runners on base.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.