3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 10/4/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Prop Bets to Target

Alec Bohm To Record 2+ Bases (+100)

After securing a late-season playoff berth, the Miami Marlins struggled in Game 1 against the Philadelphia Phillies and now hold the worst odds to win the World Series (+9000).

Braxton Garrett, who has been solid for Miami, will take the mound tonight as the Marlins looking to save their season. He touts a tolerable 3.66 ERA and a 23.7% strikeout rate but is by no means the starting pitcher bright spot for today's slate.

Garrett's weakness comes against right-handed batters; he allows a .320 weighted on base average, 15.7% HR/FB ratio, 43.7% hard-hit rate, and 1.26 home runs per nine innings to them. While these numbers aren't horrific, it puts right-handed Philadelphia batters in a comfortable position, especially if they can use Garrett's lefty-status to their advantage.

Enter Alec Bohm, who mashes the ball against lefties. This season, he swanked a .303 batting average, .594 slugging percentage, 21.8% HR/FB ratio, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and a 142 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers.

Though it's not necessary for Bohm to hit for extra bases to clear this prop (his batting average proves he is capable of two hits), it is encouraging that he knocks in an extra-base hit 13.5% of the time against left-handed pitchers (this falls to 7.4% against right-handed pitchers).

numberFire's model forecasts the Phillies to score 4.16 runs tonight (highest team total for Wednesday's slate), and I think Bohm will be a major contributor to this potential run-fest.

Isaac Paredes To Hit A Home Run (+500)

Jordan Montgomery and the Texas Rangers beat the Tampa Bay Rays handedly last night, forcing Tampa Bay to play in a sudden-death game.

Nathan Eovaldi is on the bump for Texas, which held a drastically different meaning to Rangers’ fans earlier in the year than it has in the past month.

Eovaldi was excellent in the first half of the season. He posted a 2.83 ERA and a 24.0% strikeout rate, paving the way to an All-Star nod. Following the mid-season break, he ended up on the IL with a right forearm strain, and has been a shell of himself ever since.

Prior to his injury, he pitched 122.2 innings and gave up eight home runs. Since returning from the IL, Eovaldi has thrown for 20.1 innings and given up a towering seven home runs.

Power-hitters have been in for an absolute field day against Eovaldi as of late.

He’s allowed opposing batters a .313 batting average, .602 slugging percentage, 35.0% HR/FB ratio, and 3.10 home runs per nine innings in five starts back from the IL, leaving him with a whopping 9.30 ERA in September.

It’s a very unfortunate break for Eovaldi and the Rangers but creates ample opportunity for Tampa Bay batters to capitalize on his recent woes.

numberFire's projections anticipate the Rays to hit 1.19 home runs in this game (highest team home run projection on Wednesday's slate), and my pick to go yard is Isaac Paredes.

Paredes not only leads the Rays in home runs (31 on the season) but also has great power-numbers against right-handed pitchers. In the regular season, he hit for a .513 slugging percentage, 19.3% HR/FB ratio, 47.5% fly-ball rate, and 141 wRC+ against northpaws.

Given the various power-repellant aces in line to pitch on Wednesday's slate (Zach Eflin, Sonny Gray, Jose Berrios, Freddy Peralta), it can be tough to make an argument for batter success. However, Eovaldi is as volatile as a pitcher can get right now, and when paired with Paredes' power-numbers against righties, it creates the perfect storm for a ball to go yard.

Though Paredes is my favorite choice to hit a four-bagger tonight, I'd also look out for Rays' outfielder Josh Lowe to make a splash tonight. He doesn't hit for power quite as much as today's home run pick, but he has an excellent .300 batting average versus righties this season and has been raking the ball this past month (.318 September batting average).

Paredes' homer prop and Lowe To Record 2+ Bases (+110) are great value props, and each player is in a solid spot to exploit Eovaldi this late-afternoon.

Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)

After securing a first inning lead in last night’s Game 1, the Milwaukee Brewers eventually fell to the Arizona Diamondbacks, meaning it's win-or-go-home for the Brew-Crew tonight.

Despite their 6-3 defeat, and the fact that Zac Gallen is on the bump for Arizona, Milwaukee is favored to win Game 2 -- mainly thanks to Freddy Peralta being in line to start. He’s my punch-out pick for Wednesday’s slate.

The Diamondbacks aren’t exactly the most strikeout-prone team. The Arizona active roster has maintained a 20.4% strikeout rate this season (27th), but this shouldn’t repel Peralta over bettors as his numbers prove that the line for this prop is more than fairly adjusted based on his opposition.

Peralta has, arguably, been the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, he’s allowed opponents a .184 batting average (third in MLB) and has maintained a 36.3% strikeout rate (first).

He should have a long pitch count leash for a myriad of reasons. Milwaukee’s season is on the line, meaning they will look for their ace to deliver a vintage Peralta performance. Further, the Brewers sent six relief pitchers to the mound last night, so they don’t exactly have the freshest bullpen arms. Finally, Peralta has seen nine days of rest since his last start, so he should see ample opportunities tonight.

Based on this, we can reasonably expect Peralta to throw for at least 70-plus pitches (and, likely, many more) against the D’Backs. In his last 14 starts where he has thrown more than 70 pitches, he has whiffed at least 6 batters 12 times.

Peralta boasts a 30.9% season-long strikeout rate (fourth in MLB) and is especially lethal against right-handed batters, posting a 36.2% strikeout rate versus batters with this handedness. Fortunately for Milwaukee and over bettors, Arizona’s lineup is righty-dominant.

numberFire's model anticipates Peralta to get 7.3 Ks (highest among pitchers today) opposite Arizona, proving that his -105 odds to get over 5.5 Ks is of great value. I think his over is the most reliable pitching prop option on the board today.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.