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3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Wednesday 6/14/23

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez•@nickvaz

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Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some low-salary players to target on FanDuel for tonight's main slate.

Garrett Whitlock, SP, Boston Red Sox ($7,000)

Garrett Whitlock has become a full-time starter this season after mostly coming out of the bullpen in his first two MLB seasons. No one would confuse him for an ace, but he's in a nice spot tonight.

Whitlock has just a 19.7% strikeout rate this season, but over the last two starts, he has been able to fan 11 total batters. His swinging-strike rate is 12.0%, which would put him in the top 25 in the league if he had enough innings to qualify and is something that hints at some positive regression for his strikeout rate. He also isn't getting himself into trouble with walks, as he's offering batters a free pass just 4.5% of the time.

The matchup for Whitlock and the Boston Red Sox is a good one tonight. They'll host the Colorado Rockies, the owners of a lineup that ranks second-to-last in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and strikes out at the second-highest clip in the league.

The Red Sox are -240 favorites, per the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Whitlock has the best point-per-dollar value projection for a pitcher in numberFire's model. If he can eat some innings and get the win, he'll pay off this salary -- although, with the amount of top-end studs we have going on the mound tonight, it's a risk to throw a dart at a value arm.

Robert Refsnyder, OF, Boston Red Sox ($2,600)

Another Red Sox player who's a great value tonight is Robert Refsnyder. He's not the most exciting hitter from a power perspective, but it makes sense to try to get him in your lineups on Wednesday.

Refsnyder has the platoon advantage tonight, something that historically has been great news for him. He has a career .336 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against lefties. In a small sample this season, that number is all the way up to .418. On top of that, Boston likes to use him in the leadoff spot against lefties, which puts him in a great situation.

The Rockies are rolling out Austin Gomber as their starting pitcher tonight. Gomber has been dreadful this season, striking out just 14.0% of batters and posting a 6.75 fielding independent pitching (FIP). He's allowed opposing hitters to barrel the ball 9.9% of the time, which is why he's struggled to keep the ball in the yard.

Boston has a massive implied team total of 5.9 runs -- by far the highest on the slate. To be able to get a leadoff hitter at this salary in a lineup projected for that many runs is a gift that we should take advantage of tonight.

Ryan O'Hearn, 1B, Baltimore Orioles ($2,600)

Ryan O'Hearn was not a big free agent signing when he joined the Baltimore Orioles in the offseason. Things have worked out pretty well, and he's now an important player in their lineup.

O'Hearn has a .415 wOBA so far this season, the best of his career. Now, it does look somewhat flukey given the rest of his career numbers. However, his Statcast data shows that he has the highest average exit velocity of his career and also has a 51.9% hard-hit rate.

The Orioles will face Jose Berrios, who is effective but sometimes erratic. Berrios has allowed a .331 wOBA and a .184 isolated slugging percentage (ISO) to lefties in his career. O'Hearn is definitely the type of lefty who could cause him some trouble.

Baltimore has been hot, winning their last five games. They are implied to score 4.23 runs tonight, and O'Hearn being the likely clean-up hitter makes him a nice value cog on Wednesday.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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