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3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Thursday 8/10/23

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3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Thursday 8/10/23

Value is king for DFS, and finding a diamond in the rough can be the ultimate difference-maker.

For hitters, we want players with the capacity to put up big numbers, favorable matchups, and a supporting cast that can increase their chances for runs and RBI. Looking at pitchers, strikeouts are king -- although, inning-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

Let's look at some of the top value plays for Thursday's main slate on FanDuel, which begins at 6:40 p.m. EST.

All advanced statistics come from FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All projections via numberFire.

Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox ($2,800)

The Boston Red Sox have the highest implied team total (6.26) of tonight's slate by a considerable margin. Consequently, we need to have a share of this Boston offense, and, from a value standpoint, no one fits that bill quite like Triston Casas.

Casas' DFS salary hasn't caught up with his on-field production over the second half of the season, so we need to take advantage while we still can. Since the All-Star break, Casas owns a blistering .492 wOBA -- second in MLB only to superstar Freddie Freeman. Over that same span, Casas also ranks second in ISO (.431) and is tied for third with 9 home runs.

He's not just getting lucky, either, considering he's registering hard contact 45.3% of the time and is keeping the ball in the air with a low 28.3% ground ball rate.

For as good as Casas has played over the second half, it's his matchup that's really enticing tonight.

While lefty Austin Cox is projected to start for the Kansas City Royals, he'll likely serve in an opener role. Righty Alec Marsh is expected to handle the bulk of Kansas City's innings -- a good omen for Casas given his prowess against right-handed pitching.

Even with a subpar start to the season, Casas still owns a strong .368 season-long wOBA against righties. That, along with his .246 ISO and 38.1% hard-hit rate, bodes well for his prospects tonight.

numberFire projects Casas for 11.0 FanDuel points tonight but, given Boston's potential for an offensive outburst, the slugger could be in line to blow past his projection.

Harold Ramirez, OF, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,700)

Harold Ramirez is one of the very best hitters in baseball against lefties.

In that split, Ramirez ranks seventh among qualified batters with a .438 wOBA and leads the league with a .394 average. He doesn't provide a ton in the power department, but a .211 ISO isn't nothing.

With a matchup with southpaw Matthew Liberatore on deck, Ramirez should absolutely feast tonight.

Liberatore has gotten shelled since debuting for the St. Louis Cardinals. Since his call-up on May 17th, Liberatore has allowed the 10th-highest wOBA (.387) in the league while sporting a less-than-ideal 5.75 SIERA.

Miraculously, the young lefty sits in the bottom 1% of the league in xSLG (.544), xwOBA (.409), xERA (7.64), and strikeout rate (12.6%) -- per Statcast. To be blunt, there aren't many pitchers an opposing hitter would rather see than Matthew Liberatore.

Adding to his case for a strong night, Ramirez has been on fire since the All-Star break, batting .350 and posting a solid .360 wOBA.

The pieces are all there for Ramirez to outperform his 9.2-point projection and at his $2,700 salary. He's one of the top value plays for Thursday's main slate.

Adam Duvall, OF, Boston Red Sox ($2,900)

We're headed back to where we started to close out today's DFS value plays -- Boston. With the Red Sox boasting such a high implied team total in a soft matchup, it's only right that we grab more than one slice of the cake.

So, despite sitting out yesterday, Adam Duvall is a logical choice from a value standpoint.

Firstly, he carries a manageable salary of $2,900. Despite that, he's been highly effective this season, averaging 10.43 FanDuel points per game with a 38.1% hard-hit rate.

While those may not be numbers you'd write home about, his right-handed splits what we're most interested in.

As mentioned above, the Royals have a lefty opening the game, but a righty projected to take on the bulk of their innings. That righty, Alec Marsh, is a heavy fastball user, relying on the four-seamer 43.6% of the time.

That alone bodes well for Duvall; he's posted a run value of 3.0 against four-seamers this season -- his best mark against any pitch type.

However, Duvall has been strong in general against righties, boasting a strong .366 wOBA. Though he doesn't register a ton of hard contact, Duvall's .303 ISO ranks 13th among players with at least 100 plate appearances in that split.

After blasting a homer and finishing with 18.7 FanDuel points in his most recent start, Adam Duvall is a strong value play tonight thanks to his low salary and strong right-handed splits.


Can't get enough of America's pastime? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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