3 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Guardians at Yankees, Game 2
Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, let's see what MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today.
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Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Guardians at Yankees
Guardians Moneyline (+144)
The Cleveland Guardians dropped Game 1 of the ALCS by a score of 5-2. But are they undervalued heading into Game 2?
Tanner Bibee and Gerrit Cole will get the start for their respective teams.
Bibee has produced a 3.47 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA, and 26.3% strikeout rate this season. He's allowed two earned runs and has struck out nine batters through 8 2/3 innings pitched this postseason. New York's offense is dominant against righties, but Bibee limits opposing righties to a .148 ISO, .338 SLG, and 0.89 home runs per nine innings, which could come in handy against Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
Past Bibee, Cleveland will bring in a bullpen that managed a 2.57 ERA (best in MLB), 3.67 xFIP (second-best), 3.38 SIERA (second-best), and allowed only 0.75 homers per nine (fewest) this season.
Cade Smith (1.91 ERA and 2.16 SIERA through 75 1/3 IP), Hunter Gaddis (1.57 ERA through 74 2/3 IP), Tim Herrin (1.92 ERA through 65 2/3 IP), and the show-stopping Emmanuel Clase (0.61 ERA through 74 1/3 IP) will all be available out of the 'pen. None of these relievers have pitched since Saturday, so the Guardians have the ability to lean heavily on their rested and dominant bullpen in this one.
Am I allowed to cast some doubt on a Cole game at Yankee Stadium? Cole struggled with a 4.31 ERA, 4.21 xFIP, and 1.27 WHIP at home during the regular season. He allowed a .305 wOBA in this split but just a .265 wOBA on the road. He's pitched one playoff game in the Bronx this postseason, surrendering nine baserunners, four runs, three earned runs, and one home run through five innings.
I don't want to overstate Cole's home struggles, and he's coming off an ALCS-clinching start where he let up just one run through seven innings on the road, so his confidence could be at a high. However, his at-times-shady play at home could open the door for the Guardians' offense to smash, giving a bit more credence to their moneyline.
These +144 odds imply just a 40.9% probability, but numberFire's MLB projections have Cleveland's win chances up at 49.0%. That's the side I'll roll with for Game 2.
Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)
Cole has punched out just eight batters through 12 frames this postseason, notching 4 Ks in each of his two starts.
As mentioned, he's had a tough time at Yankee Stadium, including in the strikeout column. He shined with a 27.4% K% on the road this season, but his strikeout rate was down to 23.5% at home.
The Guardians pose as a tough matchup, too. This season, they struck out at a mere 20.2% rate (fifth-lowest in MLB) and just a 20.0% rate versus right-handers (fourth-lowest).
Cole has thrown only 80 and 87 pitches in his two postseason starts, so his leash is already on the shorter side. If the Guardians start to get to Cole, I imagine the Yankees will want to get him out of there. Not only does New York have a great bullpen they can turn to, but they'll also want to keep their ace protected in this long playoff run.
Six strikeouts seems closer to the best-case scenario than the baseline for Cole, so I'll side with the under.
Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets
Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+440)
Jose Ramirez is lethal against left-handed pitchers, and that's usually the split we want to get him in. But he's still got great numbers against righties.
This season, Ramirez posted a .226 ISO, 121 wRC+, and 50.1% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Cole, meanwhile, surrenders a 47.9% fly-ball rate to lefties.
Yankee Stadium is one of the friendliest home run parks in baseball, and Ramirez's massive 50.1% fly-ball rate could win out against Cole's also sizable 47.9% fly-ball rate. The temp will be low, but winds blowing out could help hitters in this one.
Ramirez has posted a 17.6% barrel rate, 50.0% fly-ball rate, .500 ISO, and a 245 wRC+ across the last 14 days of play, so I'll trail the hot hand tonight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
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