3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 5/17/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Tyler O'Neill To Hit a Home Run (+500)

The Boston Red Sox have an interesting matchup against Kyle Gibson which could lead to some home runs.

Gibson isn't the most consistent pitcher and really no one we need to worry about on the mound. This season, he's struggled versus right-handed hitters with a .354 SLG, 0.79 HR/9, 39.1% hard-contact rate, and 13.3% HR/FB ratio.

It's a mixed bag for Gibson and with a power hitter such as Tyler O'Neill on the other side, he could tee one up for a homer.

O'Neill comes in with 8 of his 10 home runs off of right-handed pitchers and that's due to a 131 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .295 ISO, 51.8% fly-ball rate, and 27.6% HR/FB ratio. He can get the ball in the air and with the hard contact Gibson allows, we could see it flying tonight.

Davis Schneider To Hit a Home Run (+460)

With a very soft matchup, the Toronto Blue Jays can pile up the runs quickly against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays will send Tyler Alexander to the mound tonight, in what could be a rough outing for him. This year, Alexander has struggled big time against righties with a .549 SLG, .387 wOBA, 2.28 HR/9, 4.76 xFIP, 47.8% fly-ball rate, and 37.6% hard-contact rate. We've seen him allow seven of his nine homers versus righties, making this the clear spot to target him.

We turn to Davis Schneider, who is rocking a 125 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .286 ISO, 40.0% fly-ball rate, and 35.0% hard-contact rate versus southpaws. This is a near-perfect overlap of the batted ball profiles, putting Schneider in a spot for some power.

Ryan O'Hearn To Hit a Home Run (+480)

Ryan O'Hearn is a Statcast darling and has fantastic underlying metrics.

When glancing at his Baseball Savant page, O'Hearn sits in the top 98th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. He has all the makings of a legit power hitter as we also see with a 168 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .230 ISO, 41.6% fly-ball rate, and 35.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

The power is front and center for O'Hearn, who will be up against Bryce Miller of the Seattle Mariners.

Miller struggles versus lefties with a .333 SLG, .4.08 xFIP, 1.69 HR/9, 59.7% fly-ball rate, and 41.9% hard-contact rate allowed this season. With a solid 4.20 implied run total, the Baltimore Orioles should be able to get there via the long ball tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.