3 Busts to Avoid at Quarterback: Dak Prescott, Justin Fields Could Struggle in 2023

It is widely understood that playing quarterback in the NFL is one of the most difficult positions in all professional sports. The combination of physical and mental aptitude required for the spot -- along with being responsible for knowing the other 21 players' assignments -- is like weathering a small storm on each down.

In terms of fantasy football production, the modern quarterback market can fluctuate largely between dual-threat players, high-volume passers, and everyone else. Still, outputting consistently great performances is no small feat.

Demanding as expectations always are for the signal-caller, here are three valued quarterbacks that could potentially fall short of their respective bar.

All projections via numberFire unless noted.

Top Quarterbacks Who Could Underperform

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

ADP

• 46.6 (numberFire)
• 46.5 (FantasyPros)

Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears is attempting to make the famed third-year leap. However, as electric as he is, there's always the possibility that the surrounding situation in the Midway is just not the right fit.

In two previous NFL seasons, Fields' fantasy output has varied wildly. As a rookie, the Ohio State product totaled only 136.9 FanDuel points through 12 contests. That left him ranked 31st positionally, throwing 7 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.

Last season, Fields was much more productive thanks to his dynamic rushing abilities. The quarterback compiled 1,143 yards on the ground while also running for eight scores. Additionally, his passing numbers saw a jump; he threw for a career-best 2,242 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2022. By year's end, Fields' positional fantasy ranking climbed all the way to sixth.

Chicago has made moves to bolster their offensive skill group. With a receiving corps of Darnell Mooney, D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool, Fields will have his best cast yet. Still, there are times when Fields looks to have trouble getting into consistent passing rhythms. Only twice in his career has he completed more than 20 balls in a single game.

Fields' speed and athleticism will allow him to contribute his share of highlight reel plays, but he has continually displayed a tendency to put the football in harm's way. In 2022, he led the NFL in fumbles with 16 while also sporting an interception rate of 3.46%. Over his two pro years, he has combined to toss 21 total picks.

Although extraordinarily gifted, Fields is still subject to erratic performances. He displayed a low floor last season, producing under 10.0 half-PPR points in three separate weeks. Will he finally eliminate the turbulence and produce more consistent results? I'm not sure.

I wouldn't completely trust him with a fourth-round selection, but there are many who do.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

ADP

• 78.9 (numberFire)
• 82.0 (FantasyPros)

Deshaun Watson is preparing for his first full season as a starting quarterback since 2020. Last year, he managed to start six games for the Cleveland Browns but was ultimately underwhelming. He passed for seven touchdowns along with five interceptions behind a 58.2% completion clip.

Taking the fantasy football perspective, Watson would have only been rostered as a late-season acquisition. Over his six contests in 2022, his average production was 15.1 FanDuel points. Now that he no longer has any suspension looming over his head, which way will his numbers trend?

From 2018 to 2020, Watson was a top-five fantasy quarterback in every season. His best production came in 2020, when he threw for 4,823 yards with 33 scores through the air and 3 rushing touchdowns. That was good for a grand total of 376.4 points in a half-PPR setting.

Watson has a favorable supporting cast on offense, but the overall scheme is anchored on the ground by NFL All-Pro tailback Nick Chubb. Entering his sixth season out of Georgia, Chubb averaged more than 17 carries per game in 2022. He accounts for a staggering portion of Cleveland's offense, producing over 7,300 all-purpose yards since entering the league.

Utilizing top Cleveland wideout Amari Cooper should be high on Watson's priority list. From there, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore are solid second options in the passing game. Still, Watson did not develop much of an on-field rapport with any pass-catcher in 2022. Cooper only caught two touchdowns from Watson while DPJ hauled in two of his own.

With the addition of Moore, can the unit make a jump in production in 2023?

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

ADP

• 83.0 (numberFire)
• 82.5 (FantasyPros)

Entering his eighth NFL season, Dak Prescott will yet again have the weight of theDallas Cowboys' world on his shoulders. After back-to-back years being eliminated from the playoffs at the hands of the rival San Francisco 49ers, Prescott knows the urgency heading into 2023 is nearing pinnacle levels.

Prescott's struggles last season were amplified between his injury woes and turnover tendencies. In 12 starts through 2022, he tossed a league-leading 15 interceptions (3.8% INT rate). He has also fumbled 18 total times over the past two years.

More than three entire campaigns have gone by since Prescott was last healthy enough to play in every game of a season. As a bit of rotten luck, the Mississippi State alum has endured a broken thumb and an ankle fracture along with multiple calf/shoulder ailments since 2020. Prescott's issues staying off the IL are a prominent reason all of us are familiar with the name Cooper Rush.

Even in a frustrating season, there is data to support that Prescott actually overperformed in 2022. In an effort to translate quarterback regression into a tangible metric, Prescott went over his expected touchdown total (21.0) by three scores. Still, he finished last year ranked a pedestrian QB19 (213.6 FanDuel points) from a fantasy perspective. Simply, I don't see him and head coach Mike McCarthy as a match; they both tend to be lackadaisical with clock management, and McCarthy always favors the run game.

In regards to the 2023 campaign, we are seeing Prescott drafted in the seventh round. Transparently, I would not justify a selection on him until after round eight or later. The receiving corps in Dallas is solid, but with CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup, there seems to be a lack of a true possession threat. We'll see how Prescott operates with the new group in the coming season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.