3 Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Bets for Week 1

Kyle Pitts Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Earlier this week, Kyle Pitts' status for Sunday was called into question after being limited in Wednesday's practice due to a hamstring injury. The speculation sent his fantasy managers into a tizzy, but I have little concern for Pitts this weekend.

Not only did he assure the public that he would be ready for Sunday, but he also made note that his "limited play" in Wednesday's practice was hardly limited. More importantly, he was a full-go in Thursday's practice.

With that, I'm keen on eyeballing his receiving prop, which offers us a pretty low benchmark.

In 2023, Pitts averaged 12.6 yards per catch for the Atlanta Falcons, the lowest mark in his career. It's fair to say that Desmond Ridder's quarterback play curtailed Pitts' production to a fairly heavy degree, specifically since we are talking about the highest drafted tight end in NFL history who notched 1,026 yards via 15.1 yards per catch in his rookie season.

Now that Kirk Cousins is in town, we should expect a pretty boisterous season from Pitts, one where 45-plus yard games are the norm, and quite honestly, closer to his floor. His high average depth of target (aDOT) and ability to rack up downfield targets offer a realistic opportunity for Pitts to clear this prop in just two to three catches.

The opposing Pittsburgh Steelers surrendered 3,860 passing yards in 2023 (16th-most in the NFL), including 864 yards allowed to tight ends (14th-most). The Steelers enter the season with an underwhelming 23rd-ranked secondary (per PFF), offering Pitts a solid opportunity to capitalize on those downfield targets for big gains.

Atlanta owns a 22.5-point implied total for Sunday, even with a top-ranked Steelers defensive line ready to pounce on the run game. This indicates we should expect a busy day from Cousins in the air, and perhaps shows that Pitts' receiving line is set too low. Our projections expect Pitts to gobble up 58.73 receiving yards in Week 1.

Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown (+135)

Every week there's a crop of players -- typically running backs -- that we are bullish on to see the end zone. Some worthy candidates on Sunday's main slate include Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, and Raheem Mostert, but all of these players have minus odds to score. Fair enough.

Alvin Kamara is a scorer who I am equally high on yet has more intriguing touchdown odds.

Kamara dealt with health issues in 2023, but he still managed a 50.7% red zone rush share and a 17.0% red zone target share through 14 games. The New Orleans Saints obviously have Chris Olave available in the air and Taysom Hill as a sneaky goal line option, but Kamara still takes the cake for red zone opportunities.

That's pretty exciting considering the Saints will draw a matchup opposite the Carolina Panthers this weekend. Carolina enters the season with the fourth-worst defensive line (per PFF) and the second-worst run defense (per numberFire's metrics). This might just be Kamara's best matchup of the season, so I have faith he can contribute a score to New Orleans' 23.5-point implied total.

De'Von Achane Over 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

There's been plenty of speculation regarding how the Miami Dolphins will approach their loaded running back room this season.

Last season, De'Von Achane burst onto the scene averaging a head-turning 7.8 yards per carry while his counterpart Raheem Mostert tied Christian McCaffrey for the most touchdowns (21) in the league. The team also drafted Jaylen Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Ultimately, I think we shouldn't let the hype surrounding Achane distract us from Mostert's ultra-high scoring potential. With that said, Achane is a total monster on the ground and in the passing game, and Mike McDaniel has hinted at an uptick in usage for him in Year 2, particularly in those passing plays.

So, while Achane might be splitting or losing out on some goal line work to Mostert, we should still expect him to rack up unreal yardage numbers in 2024.

Achane was allotted more than one carry in nine games during his injury-shortened rookie bid. In this span, he averaged 109.2 yards from scrimmage. In turn, I'm pretty bullish on his ability to clear 80.5 total yards this weekend.

Are his 2023 efficiency numbers unsustainable? Probably. But an uptick in workload and a friendly matchup opposite the Jacksonville Jaguars should make up for that.

The Jaguars enter the season with a 26th-ranked defensive line (per PFF), and who better to blow past that than Achane? Kenyatta Storin points out Achane versus Jacksonville's rush D as one of the top NFL DFS matchups to Target in Week 1.

Our projections, meanwhile, expect Achane to eat up 84.9 total yards in this game, one that touts a massive 49.5 over/under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.