3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 11
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.
Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Prop Picks for Week 11
Cedric Tillman Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Cleveland Browns are back after a bye week, and Jameis Winston is slated for a revenge game against the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints' defense is banged up, and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore was traded to the Washington Commanders last week. This one will also be played indoors, so the game environment favors Cleveland's passing game.
Cedric Tillman - Receiving Yds
The Browns have been letting Jameis sling it. He's thrown 41 and 46 pass attempts in his two starts. Cedric Tillman has benefited, notching 99 and 75 yards in this span. Tillman has earned a 23.0% target share, 32.7% air yards share, and is averaging 5.0 downfield targets per game alongside Jameis.
With that, I like Tillman to go over 54.5 yards this weekend. He's logged 75-plus yards in three straight games and leads the team in yards per route run. Look for his connection with Jameis to flourish in this soft matchup.
Our NFL projections forecast Tillman to reel in 63.7 yards.
George Pickens Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will meet up for one of Week 11's standout matchups.
The Ravens come in with a 30th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. They're letting up the third-most targets, third-most yards per catch, and the most receiving yards to opposing WRs. That puts George Pickens in a spot to produce.
George Pickens - Receiving Yds
Pickens has enjoyed a 28.1% target share, 45.1% air yards share, and is averaging 2.81 yards per route run. In three games alongside Russell Wilson, he's netting 3.00 yards per route run.
Since Pittsburgh's offense lacks a ton of threats, Pickens figures to draw plenty of defensive attention. However, that hasn't stopped him and Russ from connecting for 111, 74, and 91 yards in their three games together. To add, this game is showing a close spread (3.0) and high total (48.5), so the conditions are there for a shootout.
Perhaps I'd be more hesitant to back Pickens if the Ravens had shown an ability to stop the other side's top threat this season, but they haven't. Our NFL projections expect Pickens to log 81.2 yards this week.
D.J. Moore Anytime Touchdown (+320)
Stay with me on this one.
Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears have left us with much to be desired. They haven't scored any touchdowns in two straight games and haven't completed a passing touchdown since Week 8.
The team now heads into a matchup against the Green Bay Packers, one where Chicago is slated for just a 17.5-point implied team total. It is in no way perplexing to see that Chicago's players all have long odds in the touchdown market. With that said, I can get behind D.J. Moore at +320.
Moore has earned a 24.4% target share, 28.8% air yards share, and 31.3% red zone target share this season. He's been a total non-factor in four straight games, but he's still the clear pass-catching candidate to get red zone work.
Save for last Sunday's disaster, Williams has had his best games at home. So, too, has Moore, as all three of his touchdowns have been brought in at Soldier Field. Also, this week's offensive coordinator switch-up could provide the Bears' offense with some extra juice.
The Packers are lending opposing wideouts the 14th-most yards per catch and the 13th-most touchdowns. It's totally fair to be sour on all things Bears, but Moore's usage is too gaudy for me to pass on him at these +320 odds. His lack of output since Chicago's bye week could reach its breaking point this Sunday.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.