3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Tuesday 6/17/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-111)

While the New York Mets generally show positive hitting metrics in the first inning, it hasn't translated to consistent results, as they're tied for 17th in YRFI rate (27.8%) and 15th in first-inning runs per game (0.50). The Atlanta Braves are in roughly the same range, sitting 14th in YRFI rate (30.0%) and 21st in first-inning runs per game (0.41).

This should give starters David Peterson and Spencer Schwellenbach a very reasonable shot of converting a NRFI.

New York's Peterson has allowed first-inning runs just twice in 13 starts, and while he doesn't have a notable strikeout rate (21.5%), his fantastic ground-ball rate (57.3%) has contributed to him giving up just 0.45 HR/9. The unlikelihood of him giving up a run via the long ball makes him especially well-suited for a NRFI. The southpaw gets strikeouts versus lefty bats (29.3% K rate), too, giving him a good shot of neutralizing projected No. 3 hitter Matt Olson.

Schwellenbach is also enjoying a strong campaign, and he's been particularly lethal the first time through the order with a 2.32 xFIP, 29.2% strikeout rate, and 3.2% walk rate in the split. He's given up first-inning runs in only 4 of 14 starts. The right-hander boasts a 30.3% strikeout rate and 52.2% ground-ball rate in same-handed matchups, lessening the threat of Mets cleanup hitter Pete Alonso sinking this bet with a home run, as well.

Note that there's the possibility of rain in the forecast, but as of this writing, it sounds like they should be able to play.

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

This is another spot where rain could muck things up, but this game is a promising target for a NRFI if they get this one in.

While the St. Louis Cardinals have been a solid offense this season, they haven't found as much success in the first inning. St. Louis is averaging the 2nd-fewest first-inning runs per game (0.32) and are tied for 17th in YRFI rate (27.8%). The Chicago White Sox have been close to average in the opening frame, coming in at 15th in YRFI rate (29.2%) and 14th in first-inning runs per game (0.53).

Both of tonight's starting pitchers have enjoyed excellent results in the first inning, too.

Chicago's Shane Smith is a pretty easy sell. His 2.37 ERA is probably due for regression, but that's less likely to come the first time through the order. In that split, Smith's strikeout rate jumps to 28.2%, and his ground-ball rate rises to 53.6%. He's allowed first-inning runs in 2 of 13 starts.

St. Louis lefty Matthew Liberatore has also found his most success the first time through the order with a 3.38 xFIP, 23.1% strikeout rate, and 3.4% walk rate. Just like Smith, he's given up first-inning runs twice in 13 outings.

This matchup checks a lot of boxes for a scoreless first inning, and we aren't paying a premium at these odds.

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-104)

We're staying in Chicago for this last entry, so the same potential weather issues apply here, as well. That being said, we once again have matchup that could have the makings of a NRFI.

The Chicago Cubs have an inconsistent Ben Brown taking the mound tonight, which would normally discourage us from backing a scoreless opening inning. However, the Milwaukee Brewers should give Brown a major assist, as Milwaukee owns the league's second-worst YRFI rate (21.9%), third-worst first-inning ISO (.112), and fourth-worst first-inning xwOBA (.308).

While Brown has a hideous 5.71 ERA, he looks like a regression candidate behind a 3.33 SIERA, 26.8% K rate, and 7.4% walk rate. Hard contact has been his biggest issue this year, but that's less of a worry versus a Brewers lineup that lacks power.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are tied with the aforementioned Mets and Cardinals in YRFI rate (27.8%) despite otherwise being one of MLB's top offenses this season. Right-hander Chad Patrick shakes out as roughly a league-average arm but has allowed first-inning runs in only 3 of 14 starts. While his 27.2% ground-ball rate could lead to more home runs down the line, Patrick has managed to suppress them (0.84 HR/9) so far due to a 6.5% barrel rate (75th percentile).

Brown's up-and-down campaign adds some risk, and Chicago has some dangerous bats in the top half of the order despite their modest first-inning results. Still, at near-even odds, I'm willing to take the plunge.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.