3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Opening Day

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props Opening Day

Christian Yelich to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Homer props can be tough on Opening Day due to so many top-notch pitchers taking the ball. Chicago White Sox righty Shane Smith is a soild hurler, but he looks like one of the best arms to try to pick on today.

Smith recorded a 4.20 SIERA last year and let up a 39.2% fly-ball rate. Those aren't bad numbers, but today, they are some of the worst marks on the board.

Lefties had a lot more success against Smith than righties did. Lefties amassed a .315 wOBA and 1.47 dingers per nine -- much better clips than what right-handed bats generated (.273 wOBA and 0.54 HR/9).

Yelich had his healthiest season in a while a year ago, and he produced 29 jacks with a .343 wOBA. He's still got it. Of those 29 long balls, 25 came against righties, and he had a .367 wOBA in the split.

It also helps that Milwaukee is home to the seventh-best park for homers, per Statcast Park Factors.

Ceddanne Rafaela to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Andrew Abbott is another pitcher I can get behind targeting today, and I like the idea of doing so with righty Ceddanne Rafaela.

Rafaela quietly took a pretty nice step forward last year. I say quietly because the bottom-line output in 2025 wasn't that much different than his 2024 numbers -- only one more homer and one more steal -- but when you dig a little deeper, things look promising as Rafaela trimmed his K rate from 26.4% to 19.9% and upped his fly-ball rate from 36.9% to 40.0% while also improving his hard-hit rate (25.4% to 30.4%).

Today, Rafaela will see a lefty -- a split in which he racked up a 42.0% fly-ball rate last year -- in homer-happy Great American Ball Park.

As for said lefty, Abbott gives up a lot of fly-balls (47.8% FB%) and doesn't get many punchouts (21.8% K%). That's a shaky foundation, especially when he's throwing at home. For his career, he's allowed 1.48 homers per nine at home to righties along with a 50.0% fly-ball rate to righties overall. Yes, please.

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Drew Rasmussen has some numbers we can attack, and while the St. Louis Cardinals don't profile as a power-heavy lineup, Alec Burleson checks some boxes.

Rasmussen had just a 9.5% swinging-strike rate and 21.7% K rate last year, so he doesn't miss many bats. Lefties mashed 1.22 homers per nine against him via a 40.1% fly-ball rate.

Burleson does the majority of his work against right-handed pitchers. In 2025, Burleson his 15 of his 18 home runs versus RHPs, and he posted a .357 wOBA in the split with a 38.0% hard-hit rate and 43.8% fly-ball rate.

There's a chance Burleson gets lifted for a pinch-hitter if he comes up against a southpaw later in the game. But I like his matchup against Rasmussen and find these homer odds appealing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.