3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 11/19/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
No. 18 Cincinnati Bearcats at Northern Kentucky Norse
Cincinnati -13.5 (-110)
The Cincinnati Bearcats were expected to improve this season, and they've done just that with a 3-0 start while going 2-1 against the spread (ATS). These were against some huge spreads, too, such as being 36.5-point favorites against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and 27.5-point favorites against Nicholls State.
Cincy is getting its toughest game of the season in a road test against the Northern Kentucky Norse on Tuesday. The two have a common opponent in Nicholls State, which Northern Kentucky lost to by two points as seven-point favorites. This alone could be enough evidence for taking the Bearcats to cover as they took out Nicholls State by 37 points.
Spread Betting
Bart Torvik is certainly showing a huge difference between the two as Cincinnati is ranked 21st while NKU is 182nd. The Bearcats have shown excellent balance, ranking 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Norse rank 267th and 111th in the categories.
Similar to last season, Northern Kentucky leans heavily on its defense. But Cincy is red-hot with 92.7 points per game (top 3%) and a 65.2% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) -- which is in the top 1%. The Bearcats are in the top 30% of close-two attempt rate, and the Norse are in the bottom 7% of close-two attempt rate allowed. If a defense can't protect the rim, it's probably not that good.
Cincy is also in the top 3% in offensive rebounding percentage while NKU is in the bottom 30% in defensive rebounding percentage. Add in that the Norse are among the bottom 8% in PPG and eFG%, and it's difficult to feel good about Northern Kentucky against a rolling Bearcats squad.
Lipscomb Bisons at No. 9 Kentucky Wildcats
Over 158.5 Points (-115)
Let's look at another team off to a near-perfect start. Located about only 80 miles south of Cincinnati, the Kentucky Wildcats have enjoyed their own hot start, riding sky-high off of a win over Duke.
Instead of taking a side for the 20.5-point spread, the total has more promise. It's a high number set at 158.5, but each team has enough offense to make the over hit.
Lipscomb is 100th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 160th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Kentucky has balance, ranked 17th and 19th in the categories. Still, the Wildcats are led by 93.3 PPG (11th-most) while sitting in the top 6% for the quickest tempos in college basketball. The Bisons are also in the top 40% for the quickest tempos, pointing to plenty of scoring in this matchup.
Each team loves to shoot the three-ball as Lipscomb is in the top 29% for three-point attempt rate while the Cats are in the top 41% of the category. UK's perimeter defense has been meh so far, sitting in the bottom 47% in three-point attempt rate allowed. Plus, it gave up plenty of open looks against Duke and is in the bottom 14% in three-point shots allowed per contest.
Total Points
The Bisons sit in the bottom 43% in three-point attempts allowed per game, which should allow the Wildcats' dangerous three-point attack to feast.
This could be a sneaky dangerous game for UK. The Cats are riding high off of a big game, while Lipscomb is a solid mid-major team at 122nd in Bart Torvik and trailed Arkansas by only four points with about eight minutes to go on November 6th. However, I'm not confident enough in the Bisons to cover due to their 31.8% three-point percentage. If the threes aren't falling, this will probably get ugly.
Thanks to a quick pace and a boatload of three-point shots, this total is still headed for the over.
Samford Bulldogs at Michigan State Spartans
Samford +17.5 (-114)
Samford entered the 2024 NCAA Tournament as one of the most dangerous mid-major teams, but the Bulldogs ended up falling short in a four-point loss against Kansas in the first round. Even after losing its four top scorers from a season ago, Samford still looks dangerous, ranked 120th in Bart Torvik.
The Bulldogs get to face a pretty vulnerable big-name program in Michigan State, which ranks 53rd in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Spartans have clear scoring issues due to their 48.4 eFG% (bottom 38%). MSU's three-point attack has virtually no pulse, shooting only 20.0% from deep.
With that said, if Samford holds strong around the rim and can rebound, this one could get interesting. However, I don't have much confidence that the Bulldogs can do either.
Not only does Samford sit in the bottom 7% of defensive rebounding percentage, but it's also in the bottom 30% of close-two attempt share allowed. Meanwhile, MSU is in the top 44% in close-two attempt share and is in the top 12% of defensive and offensive rebounding percentages. Ultimately, the Bulldogs probably don't have much of a chance for an upset if they're dominated in these categories.
However, I still like the underdog to cover thanks to a big advantage from three-point land. Samford is in the 89th percentile in three-point attempt share and 99th percentile in three-point attempts per contest. The Dogs are efficient too to the tune of 38.5% from three-point land.
Spread Betting
With Sparty in the 50th percentile of three-point attempt share allowed while sitting in the bottom 43% in three-point shots allowed per contest, this perimeter defense doesn't cause much worry. Plus, Michigan State is in the bottom 21% in three-point attempts per game paired with that dreadful 20.0% three-point percentage.
Samford dominating the three-point battle should at least make this one competitive. numberFire's game projections is giving the Bulldogs a 69.8% likelihood to cover compared to the -114 odds to cover carrying only a 53.3% implied probability.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.