3 Best Bets for Tuesday's Crosstown Classic Matchup: White Sox at Cubs (8/15/23)

The Windy City rivalry renews for the 140th time tonight as the Chicago White Sox(47-72) make the short trip north to take on the Chicago Cubs (61-57). First pitch is slated for 8:05 pm EST at Wrigley Field.

With just 11 miles separating Chicago's two baseball teams, summer bragging rights are on the line ahead of the Chicago Bears' football season.

This year, the two squads could not find themselves in more opposite situations.

The Cubs come into tonight red-hot, having won 19 of their last 29 games thanks to averaging the second-most runs per game (6.45) since the All-Star break.

On the flip side, the White Sox sit toward the bottom of the American League and are just 9-18 over the second half.

Coming into today, the Cubs sit just 3.5 games back in the NL Central, while the White Sox are 14.5 games back in the AL Central.

While the south-siders hold a 73-67 advantage all-time and have taken the Crosstown Cup two years running, the north-siders won both prior meetings this season 7-3 and 10-7.

A pair of righties face off tonight with Touki Toussaint(1-5) taking the mound for the Sox and Kyle Hendricks (4-6) toeing the rubber for the Cubs.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which White Sox-Cubs odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Best Bets for White Sox-Cubs

Cubs Over 4.5 Runs (-118)

To kick things off, let's ride one of the hottest offenses in baseball, the Chicago Cubs.

Not only have the Cubs averaged the second-most runs since the All-Star break (6.45), but they also boast the second-highest wOBA (.363) and rank third with a .208 isolated power (ISO) over that span.

They've been rock-solid against righties all season long, compiling the sixth-best wOBA (.328) and ranking eighth in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) at 106. Though their 28th-ranked hard-hit rate (29.1%) and 4th-ranked BABIP (.309) in that split scream regression, I don't foresee that coming against Touki Toussaint.

Despite a manageable 4.22 ERA, Toussaint has outperformed his ERA estimators, owning a 5.11 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and a 4.75 expected ERA (xERA).

Toussaint has done a good job limiting barrels (70th percentile; 6.7% barrel rate), but he issues free passes like Halloween candy, sitting in the bottom 1% of the league with an abysmal 15.9% walk rate. That bodes well for a Cubs team that walks at the fourth-highest rate (9.3%) and swings at pitches out of the zone at the seventh-lowest rate (29.7%).

Aiding Chicago's case, Toussaint is coming off a pair of rough outings and has now allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts.

numberFire projects the Cubs for 4.94 runs tonight, and they have a strong chance to get to the five-run threshold needed for the over to hit.

Luis Robert 2+ Total Bases (-105)

I know we just harped on how good of a matchup this is for the Cubs, but with the Sox being hopeful that Luis Robert will return to the lineup, we need to show some love for the south side.

Granted, you aren't getting a ton of value here at -105 for Robert to notch 2+ total bases, but the White Sox slugger has mashed all season. His .371 wOBA ranks 11th among all qualified hitters while his .292 ISO ranks fifth.

Robert has racked up 2+ total bases in 57 of his 113 games this season (50.4%). While he could certainly squeak out a pair of singles, his extra-base-hit capabilities are what really intrigues me.

For the season, Robert ranks seventh in doubles (30), is tied for fourth in home runs (31), and has added a triple for good measure.

Though Robert struggles with sinkers (.194 BA), he's crushed four-seamers (.547 wOBA) and changeups (.353 wOBA). With those three making up 96% of Kyle Hendricks' pitch mix, we're already off to a solid start.

We don't want to solely rely on such a small sample size, but Robert's history against Hendricks can't be completely ignored, either. In nine career at-bats, Robert has blasted two home runs and two doubles.

He owns a .361 wOBA against right-handed pitchers as a whole, but it's his .296 ISO in that split that really has me excited.

While Hendricks has pitched well this season, he sits in the bottom 30% of the league in xBA (.264) and xSLG (.427). The soft-throwing righty can get by with pinpoint control against the average hitter, but Robert is elite.

Make sure you're glued to the lineup release, but as long as Robert is back in the lineup, he should thrive.

Nico Hoerner To Record a Stolen Base (+245)

If you're looking for some juice, boy do I have the batter prop for you.

At +245, you can get Nico Hoerner to steal a base -- something he did three times in the Cubs' two previous games against the White Sox.

Although Hoerner ranks sixth in the league with 29 steals this season, he's far from a sure thing to notch his 30th tonight. Stolen bases are hard to predict, but Nico has two big factors going in his favor tonight.

Firstly, Hoerner is an on-base machine. The middle infielder owns a .379 OBP since the All-Star break, leading to nine stolen bases over his last 28 games.

Though his .329 wOBA against righties leaves something to be desired, FanDuel has him at -270 to record a hit, equaling out to roughly 73% implied odds. That doesn't even factor in his chance of walking to reach first, something that's certainly in the cards against Toussaint.

Once he gets on base, we need to think about his chances of actually stealing. Hoerner runs at a high rate, ranking seventh with 33 attempted stolen bases. He's only been caught stealing four times, so we aren't worried about his 80th-percentile sprint speed.

What makes this prop so appealing is the opposing catcher, Yasmani Grandal. Grandal has allowed the second-most stolen bases (80) in the league this season, and it's easy to see why. He ranks last among catchers (minimum 10 throws to second) with a 2.09s pop time -- 0.03 seconds more than the next-closest catcher.

Having already displayed an affinity to run on Grandal, Hoerner just needs to get on base to have a chance to run. Considering how base-runner-friendly Touki Toussaint has been, this prop looks juicer by the minute.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.