3 Best Bets for Monday's Lone Star Series Matchup: Rangers at Astros (7/24/23)

Of the 10 MLB contests in action on Monday, the best matchup of the slate is likely in "Space City."

As the third Lone Star Series of 2023, the Texas Rangers (59-41) will visit the Houston Astros (56-44) for a three-game set. However, this year, the head-to-head meetings have provided extra intensity given the two sides' respective top spots in the AL West.

Coming into this series (July 24th), Texas currently leads the reigning champion Astros by three games in the division. Still, Houston is 4-3 against the Rangers on the year.

To get the week started on the right foot, let us survey the markets at FanDuel Sportsbook to find the three best bets for Monday's Rangers-Astros game from Minute Maid Park.

All MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Astros Moneyline (-104)

Genuinely, tonight's game could go either way, but I like leaning toward the home side with the slightly longer price: Houston -104 (the Texas moneyline is -112).

Both teams are playing well in the broad scope as they have most of the season. However, the Astros have won five of their past seven contests, while Texas was just shellacked at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers, giving up 31 total runs in the three-game interleague series.

On Monday, the Lone Star pitching matchup shows Jon Gray (4.66 SIERA in 2023) going for the Rangers while Brandon Bielak (4.87 SIERA) toes the rubber for Houston. Their numbers are rather similar this season, but Houston's lineup shows several hitters with quality lifetime numbers versus Gray, such as Yainer Diaz, Jose Abreu (.333 head-to-head batting average) and Chas McCormick (4-5 with an RBI).

To make things a little tougher on Texas, they will also be without slugging shortstop Corey Seager, who was placed in the 10-day IL over the weekend due to issues on his throwing-hand thumb.

With all that considered, I am riding with short-dog Houston to win at home. They are the reigning champs and have a 4-3 record against first-place Texas in 2023.

Over 8.5 Runs (-122)

Given the lack of a dominant starter on the hill for either side (Gray and Bielak both show a strikeout rate below 20%), the over seems like the safer side. Then, once you consider the combined offensive firepower between both lineups, over 8.5 runs (slightly juiced to -122) is a favorable opportunity.

Simply, the Rangers have been obliterating the baseball in 2023. With a team .802 OPS, Texas has the highest mark in the American League. Additionally, their 580 total runs scored this season pace all of MLB.

Houston is still a quality offensive side, as well. They have clubbed 124 total home runs as a team in 2023, which is top-10 in the Majors.

Structurally, Minute Maid Park is a hitter's venue, but especially so for right-handed hitters. Considering the shortened left-field Crawford Boxes (315 feet down the left field line), righty batters like McCormick, Alex Bregman, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung and Jeremy Pena have high potential in this Houston venue.

Of course, Jose Altuve is still out with an oblique injury, but his replacement, Mauricio Dubon, has been playing with confidence -- he crushed a ninth inning homer on Sunday to lift the 'Stros over the Oakland Athletics.

Jonah Heim to Record a Run (+110)

As just alluded to, I don't see runs being at a premium on Monday night -- so why not cash in on a plus-money run-scoring prop?

The Rangers are tied for the AL lead with eight players showing double-digit figures in the home run category. One of those players is Texas catcher Jonah Heim, who shows 14 long balls. Additionally, he is fifth on the team in runs scored with 48.

Given a +110 payout on FanDuel Sportsbook, Heim has value in the "To Record a Run" market. With Seager out, Heim typically hits in the fifth slot on the batting lineup, which leaves him in the middle of the action.

Heim scored a run yesterday in an 8-4 win against the Dodgers, and I think he stands a good shot to do so again in an offensively advantageous contest.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.