This "Lone Star State" showdown certainly looked a bit better on paper to begin the year.

It's through no fault of the Houston Texans, who are leading the AFC South at 6-4 despite last week's late-second loss to the Detroit Lions in a game where they forced five interceptions.

Really, it's the 3-6 Dallas Cowboys, who have lost Dak Prescott (hamstring) for the season, that put the competitiveness of this one in doubt.

Will the Cowboys put together a signature effort behind Cooper Rush, or is Houston the latest visitor that will enjoy their time in Jerry World?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Monday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Texans at Cowboys Betting Picks

Texans -7.5 (+100)
Texans -3.5 in First Half (-120)
Cowboys Under 16.5 Points (-110)

Public sides on FanDuel Sportsbook are 9-4 against the spread (ATS) so far this week, so I have no fear leaning into the most obvious outcome of Monday's game here.

The Dallas Cowboys remain an unmanageably poor product at home this season. They've given up 38.3 points per game at AT&T Stadium and have amassed a -94 point differential. Mike Tyson looked more competitive in the building on Friday.

There just aren't many building blocks for improvement, either. numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics rank the Dallas defense as 28th or worse against both the pass and run, and they've posted -0.25 Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play in the past two weeks -- the worst mark in the NFL.

Houston is nF's 10th-ranked schedule-adjusted D, and they're 12th or better against both the rush and pass. The Cowboys have struggled to run the ball all season, so it's just hard to see where a one-dimensional offense behind Cooper Rush ultimately keeps pace with Houston.

I'll target bits of both a first-half and full-game spread when the latter's number (7.5) is eerily susceptible to a backdoor cover.

However, I could make the argument the Cowboys' team total is the best way to take this same angle.

We've seen the Texans held to 20 points or fewer in three of their road contests. Many of their metrics are actually skewed to the road due to a 41-point romp of the New England Patriots, but it is a concern that C.J. Stroud has posted 0.21 Passing NEP per drop back at home compared to -0.08 on the road.

One still would have to favor their chances with Joe Mixon attacking nF's worst analytical rush defense coinciding with the return of Nico Collins (hamstring). If there's any trepidation about these extreme Stroud splits, the under on Dallas' team total makes a ton of sense.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.