3 Best Bets and Player Props for Commanders at Ravens, Week 6

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything for spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out Sunday as the Washington Commanders take on the Baltimore Ravens? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Commanders at Ravens Betting Picks

Commanders Over 21.5 Points (-114)

Despite logging 38.0 points per game (PPG) over their last three games, the Commanders' point total is set at only 21.5 on Sunday. Washington leads football with 31.0 PPG this season. The efficiency is present across the board, including 6.3 yards per play (third-most) while ranking first in schedule-adjusted offense.

It's not like few points are expected in this matchup with a 51.5 total -- the second-highest of Week 6. The Ravens hold the eighth-worst adjusted defense, so why is Washington expected to going under its average scoring total?

Baltimore's defense has been a story of two tales. Stopping the run has been no problem, limiting opponents to 3.1 yards per carry (the least) and 60.4 rushing yards per game (the least). The Ravens even boast the fourth-best adjusted run defense. The secondary has been a completely different story, giving up 8.1 yards per passing attempt (fourth-most) and 280.2 passing yards per contest (second-most). This unit is the ninth-worst adjusted pass defense.

Here's where it relates to the Commies' offense. Washington has the highest run play rate in the league while logging 5.3 rushing yards per rushing attempt (fourth-most) and 178.4 rushing yards per game (second-most). The Commanders' hold the league's second-best adjusted run offense. There's some fear surrounding if the Commies will be able to run the ball on Sunday, especially with Pro Football Focus' eighth-worst run block grade.

However, this doesn't mean that Washington is incapable of putting up big points. Week 3 is a prime example as the Commanders logged only 108 rushing yards and 3.4 yards per attempt against the Cincinnati Bengals, yet they still posted 38 points and 248 passing yards with 9.9 yards per passing attempt. This is still the league's top adjusted pass offense led by Jayden Daniels, who has the shortest odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (-250) and the sixth-shortest odds to win the MVP Award (+1100).

Baltimore just gave up 38 points in Week 5 against the Bengals. Most of this success came through the air with Cincinnati racking up 371 passing yards compared to 71 rushing yards. Clearly, teams can still put up points on the Ravens without running the rock efficiently.

Jayden Daniels Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Let's put more time focusing on Daniels' matchup against the Ravens' sputtering pass defense. While Washington is averaging the lowest pass play rate, the Commanders have consistently hit big plays at 8.5 yards per passing attempt (second-most).

Going back to that Week 3's matchup against the Bengals, Daniels balled out with 254 passing yards and 0.68 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) -- via NFL's Next Gen Stats -- while completing 21 of 23 passing attempts (91.3%). The rookie is averaging 241.7 passing yards per game over his last three and continues to hold absurd efficiency with 0.42 EPA/db during the span (second-best among qualifying players).

Our DFS projections have Daniels at QB3 this week paired with 234.9 forecasted passing yards. The over for his 224.5 passing prop feels like a great bet, and the 250+ passing yards alternate line (+168) is even worth a look.

Bringing home the pick, the Ravens have allowed the most deep yards at 789 (the second-most is 661 deep yards). That's a huge margin, giving this explosive Washington passing attack the stage to shine. When looking at PFF's passing depth, Daniels' two best pass grades come from attempts of 10-19 yards (94.2 grade) and 20+ yards (72.0 grade).

The Commies also have PFF's fifth-best pass block grade, which could fend off Baltimore's ninth-best pass rush grade. Along with Washington going over its point total, Daniels smashing his passing prop is a nice pairing.

Lamar Jackson to Record 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+310)

So far, we've focused on the Commanders' offense. The Ravens' offense deserves love, though, logging 29.4 PPG (second-most), 447.6 yards per game (the most), and 6.8 yards per play (the most). Meanwhile, Washington's defense has been putrid as NFL's fifth-worst adjusted unit. A lot of props could have success in this potential shootout, but I'm focusing on the quarterbacks.

Our DFS projections are expecting a huge game for Lamar Jackson, who is QB1 for Week 6 with 24.3 projected fantasy points (the most among QBs). Lamar feels like a must-play in DFS this week, carrying a week-high $9,500 salary. Jackson recorded 348 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and 0.38 EPA/db in Week 5. Of course, the 41-38 shootout from last week is far from sustainable. Lamar won't consistently put up these kind of numbers, but you have to like his matchup in Week 6.

The Commies have the 5th-worst adjusted pass defense compared the 16th-best run defense. Baltimore is probably going to run the rock no matter what with the league's third-highest run play rate, but they had a ton of success through the air last week. Washington's weak secondary only makes throwing the ball even more likely. Jackson is holding 0.16 EPA/db this season, showcasing his efficiency as a thrower.

While the Commanders have allowed the 10th-most touchdowns per game at 2.8, opponents are averaging only 0.6 rushing touchdowns per contest (6th-fewest). The Ravens haven't been afraid to tailor their play-calling to the matchup. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders were better against the run than the pass, so Baltimore logged 37.5 passing attempts per game over the matchup. The Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys are among the bottom-five adjusted run defenses; we saw the Ravens' passing attempts drop to a per-game average of 17.0 over these two contests. The moral of the story: Baltimore's attempts should jump considering Washington's adjusted defensive numbers.

Jackson just erupted for four passing touchdowns in Week 5 while carrying exceptional efficiency through the air. He's carries the second-highest projected touchdown total of the week at 1.96. If correct, this projection holds a 31.2% implied probability for at least three passing touchdowns (or +221 odds). Lamar is currently +310 for three passing touchdowns (or a 24.4% implied probability). With a favorable matchup and good value, three passing touchdowns is worth a swing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.