2023 NFL Power Rankings: Wild Card Weekend

With Week 18 in the books, the 2023 NFL regular season is officially behind us! After a season full of twists and turns, we are left with 14 teams advancing to the playoffs.

The AFC East crown is staying in Buffalo. The Buffalo Bills' 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins capped off an impressive late-season charge that earned them a fourth consecutive division title and the second seed in the AFC. Miami will be the sixth seed.

The AFC South belongs to the Houston Texans. Houston's 23-19 win over the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday, combined with the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-20 loss to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, gave the Texans their first division title since 2019 and the fourth seed in the AFC.

There was less drama in the NFC South as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers clinched the division with their 9-0 win over the Carolina Panthers. The Buccaneers will be the fourth seed in the NFC.

The Dallas Cowboys secured the NFC East title with their 38-10 win over the Washington Commanders. Dallas will be the second seed in the NFC, while the Philadelphia Eagles, after their late-season collapse, will be the fifth seed.

This week, we are taking a look at the 14 playoff teams and where they sit in our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric.

The team with the best Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, heading into Wild Card Weekend? The San Francisco 49ers (29.4%).

The team with the second-best Super Bowl odds? The Baltimore Ravens (25.9%).

Here's where things stand heading into Wild Card Weekend.

NFL Power Rankings for Wild Card Weekend

The Bottom Five

After a late-season collapse, the Eagles enter the playoffs as the lowest-ranked team.

For most of the season, the Eagles ranking was worse than their record -- mostly due to their defense -- but this is the farthest they've fallen. They will enter the playoffs ranked 9th in offense, per numberFire, and 29th in defense. When Philly was having success, the Eagles' offense was able to cover for their defense, but in recent weeks, that has not been the case.

Despite their ranking, the Eagles still have the sixth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (2.1%), per numberFire -- lower than the implied odds of 6.7% from their current Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook (+1400).

The Texans enter the playoffs as a perfectly middle-of-the-road team. They rank 15th overall -- 15th on offense and 19th on defense. Their odds of winning the Super Bowl (0.5%) sit 11th. I

t's been an impressive season for a young Texans team, and they are 3.0-point underdogs versus the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland's defense, which ranks second overall, will present rookie C.J. Stroud with an extremally difficult test in his postseason debut.

Next up is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers, listed as 10.0-point underdogs against the Bills, are the largest underdog of the week. They rank 24th in offense and 9th in defense, but they could be without superstar T.J. Watt due to a knee injury.

With Mason Rudolph under center, the Steelers are on a three-game winning streak, but those victories came against the Bengals, Seahawks, and a Ravens team resting their starters. The Bills, who rank fourth overall, per numberFire, are on a different level. The Steelers' odds of winning the Super Bowl (0.2%) are tied with the Green Bay Packers for worst among remaining teams.

The Browns enter the playoffs ranked 12th overall, and they have the ninth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (1.2%), per numberFire. Cleveland's strength is their defense, which ranks second overall. Since Joe Flacco took over in Week 13, the Browns' offense has improved. With Flacco under center, they are averaging 28.6 points per game, which includes a 36-point outburst against the Texans, the same team they face this weekend.

The question for Cleveland, in terms of their chances to win a Super Bowl, is if their offense can hold up against other contenders. Their performance on a short week against a Jets' defense that finished the season ranked third indicates that it might be able to. The problem is, the Browns' path likely leads them into Baltimore, who has the top-ranked defense, per numberFire.

Rounding out the bottom five is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa is a better-than-average side in both phases of the game. Their offense ranks 12th, and their defense ranks 16th. They have the 12th-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (0.4%).

The Buccaneers have the advantage of being the only team in this portion of the Power Rankings to face a team ranked lower than them on Wild Card Weekend. Despite that, they are 2.5-point home underdogs to the Eagles. Looking ahead, the Buccaneers' Super Bowl odds are greatly impacted by a path that would likely see them travel to the 49ers or Cowboys if they do knock out Philadelphia.

The Middle Five

The Los Angeles Rams rank 10th overall and are first in a line of three teams in this section that are better on offense than on defense. The Rams' offense ranks 8th while their defense ranks 21st. Los Angeles will face another one of those teams, the Detroit Lions, this weekend, in what could be an extremely high-scoring contest.

The Rams have the 10th-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (0.6%). Los Angeles is capable of upsetting the Lions as 3.5-point underdogs, but if they do, they are very likely to face the 49ers on the road after that, which could bring their impressive season to a close.

The Packers rank ninth overall after a bright start to the Jordan Love era in Green Bay. The Packers' offense ranks seventh, but their defense checks in 22nd.

Had they received a different opponent, the Packers would be a real threat to pull off an upset this weekend, but a meeting with the Cowboys presents an extremely difficult task. Dallas is the only undefeated team at home this season and ranks better than Green Bay on both sides of the ball. With Green Bay a 7.5-point underdog, it's very likely Love starts his postseason career with a loss. Green Bay's odds of winning the Super Bowl (0.2%) are tied for last among those in the postseason.

Up next is the Lions, who rank seventh overall. Their success this season has been heavily supported by their offense, which ranks fourth. Their success on offense has helped cover for a defense that ranks 23rd. Among playoff teams, the Lions' defense ranks second-worst, behind only Philadelphia. Given the Lions' shoddy D, the Rams present a difficult challenge for Detroit this weekend.

The Lions have the seventh-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (1.7%) per numberFire. If they do get past the Rams, they will most likely have to travel to Dallas to try to hand the Cowboys their first home loss of the season -- something they almost did in Week 17.

The Kansas City Chiefs rank sixth overall and are the first team covered so far that ranks inside the top-ten in both offense (10th) and defense (4th). The Chiefs are coming off their worst regular season in the Patrick Mahomes era, but they are still a formidable opponent thanks to a defense that is much improved from previous seasons. These aren't the same Chiefs we've seen in previous years, but if Mahomes and the offense can raise their game to meet the moment, they can still be a contender.

Kansas City will need to improve immediately, though, thanks to an opening-round showdown with the Dolphins, who rank one spot ahead of them. That leaves zero room for KC's regular season struggles to spill over into the postseason.

Speaking of the Dolphins, they rank fifth overall -- a combination of an offense that sits 5th and a defense that is 12th. Despite ranking third among teams that play on Wild Card Weekend, the Dolphins are underdogs for Saturday's matchup. Their failure to win the AFC East has them opening their postseason as 3.5-point 'dogs on the road against the Chiefs.

The Dolphins have the eighth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (1.5%), per numberFire. To do so, they will have to overcome the issue the defined their regular season -- the inability to consistently defeat quality opposition. Against teams that made the playoffs this season, the Dolphins are 1-5. On the road against teams that made the playoffs, they are 0-4. Their path to the Super Bowl likely involves three games as road underdogs.

The Top Four

After a horrendous start to the campaign, the Bills finished their late-season surge with a victory over Miami to win the AFC East and secure the second seed in the AFC. Finally, for the first time since the very start of the season, the Bills' record matches their position on the Power Rankings.

Buffalo ranks fourth overall and is strong in both phases of the game, ranking third on offense and seventh on defense. They have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl (18.8%). Their win over the Dolphins also earned them a much easier game on Wild Card Weekend. Instead of traveling to Miami, they will host the Steelers and are 10.0-point favorites. The path is set for Buffalo to make a deep run.

Sitting at third overall, the Cowboys are the highest-ranked team that will be in action on Wild Card Weekend. The Eagles' late-season collapse opened the door for Dallas to win the division, and the Cowboys took advantage, securing the NFC East and the second seed in the NFC.

They rank second on offense and fifth on defense, making Dallas the only team in the Power Rankings to rank inside the top five in both phases of the game. Despite slotting in above Buffalo, Dallas has only the fourth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (14.2%) due to a projected path that will likely take them on the road for an NFC title game against the 49ers, a team that they have struggled against in recent times. Dallas opens its postseason as 7.5-point favorites over Green Bay, the second-largest favorites of the week.

The Ravens earned the top seed in the AFC, and our Power Rankings indicate that they deserved it. They rank second overall and just barely miss the cutoff to rank top-five on both sides of the ball -- their offense ranks sixth while their defense ranks first. Baltimore has also beaten the only team above them on the rankings and did so on the road. They have the best record in the NFL and the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl (25.9%).

The only thing they don't have is prior success in the postseason with this current core. Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in his previous four playoff starts but will have an excellent chance to change that record -- and the narrative surrounding it -- during these playoffs. The Ravens' most likely matchup for next weekend is the Browns.

The 49ers sit on top of our Power Rankings by a margin of 0.58 nERD. Their offense ranks first, and their defense ranks 10th. The defense is a slight concern for San Francisco -- among the top-four teams, their defense ranks last. Their offense has been so good, though, that it might not matter.

The 49ers' will enjoy home-field advantage until the Super Bowl, and their most likely opponent in the NFC Championship game is a Dallas team they have had tremendous success against in their recent meetings. San Fran boasts the best odds of winning the Super Bowl (29.4%), per numberFire. That clip is slightly below their implied odds of 31.2% at their current +220 number at FanDuel Sportsbook. The 49ers' most likely matchup for next weekend is the Eagles.

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