2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 14

With Week 13 officially in the books, we are approaching the home stretch of the 2023 NFL season! The Dallas Cowboys remain on top of our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the Carolina Panthers remain at the bottom.

The Los Angeles Rams' 36-19 win over the Cleveland Browns sees them move up six spots to 10th. Cleveland drops seven spots to 19th.

The Atlanta Falcons jump up three places after their 13-8 win over the New York Jets and now sit in 17th.

After their 42-19 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Philadelphia Eagles move down two places and now reside in ninth.

The Indianapolis Colts move up two spots to 13th after their thrilling 31-28 overtime win over the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee remains in 23rd.

The team with the largest increase in Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, after Week 13? The 49ers, up 7.2 percentage points.

The team with the largest decrease in Super Bowl odds? The Kansas City Chiefs, down 13.6 percentage points.

These Power Rankings will continue to shift weekly as the story of the season is written.

Here's where things stand heading into Week 14.

NFL Power Rankings (Week 14)

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

The Arizona Cardinals move up two spots after their 24-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Arizona has now won half of its four games since Kyler Murray returned and are slowly starting to move up from the bottom of the rankings. It's an expected move, as their quarterback situation is much better than the teams around them. If their defense, which ranks 31st overall by numberFire's metrics, improves slightly, they can pass the Jets and move up to 27th. The big issue for Arizona is their schedule, which had been kind since Murray's return, is about to take a turn. After their bye in Week 14, they face the 49ers, Bears, Eagles, and Seahawks.

The Jets' season of misery continued in predictable fashion in Week 13. Their defense kept them in the game, providing the offense with a winnable situation, but the offense, once again, failed to capitalize. The Jets' defense ranks 11th against the run and seventh against the pass for an overall ranking of fifth, per numberFire. It's an elite unit, but it isn't enough to overcome the struggles of their offense, which now ranks 32nd through the air and 30th on the ground for an overall ranking of 32nd. The quarterback shuffle has made no difference for New York. What began as a promising season is now a lost one. Their odds of making the playoffs, winning their division, and winning the Super Bowl now all read 0.0%, per numberFire.

The Denver Broncos' winning streak came to an end with a respectable 22-17 loss to the Houston Texans. The Broncos are clearly a better team than they were at the start of the season, but after this loss, their odds of making the playoffs sit at just 8.7%, down 7.1 percentage points from last week. When you start your season with five losses and only one win, the margin for error, even after a five-game winning streak, is slim. To have a chance of making the playoffs, Denver likely needs to go 4-1 the rest of the way. Their schedule will make that difficult, as over the final five weeks they face the Chargers twice, the Lions, the Patriots, and the Raiders. With Los Angeles also in the playoff hunt, the Broncos' battles with them in Weeks 14 and 17 loom large.

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

Following their 41-35 loss to the Cowboys, the Seattle Seahawks dropped two spots and now sit in 21st. The good news for Seattle is that they were competitive against an elite team, something that was unexpected entering this week after their performances over the past month. The bad news is that the loss caused their odds of making the playoffs to drop by 35.4 percentage points, the largest drop of the week. The worst news for Seattle is their schedule doesn't get any easier because they face the 49ers and Eagles in their next two games. Their performance against Dallas provides hope that they can cause an upset in one of those games, but it will still be a difficult task. As it stands, the Seahawks' odds of making the playoffs sit at just 8.7%.

The New Orleans Saints also put up a fight against a contender in Week 14, but they were unable to complete their comeback, losing 33-28 to the Detroit Lions. With the loss, New Orleans moved down one spot to 14th, and their odds of making the playoffs decreased by 21.5 percentage points, the second-largest decline of the week. The Saints' offense ranks 19th, per numberFire, and their defense ranks 12th. Sitting at 5-7, their playoff hopes are kept alive by a very weak NFC South. The Saints' odds of making the playoffs sit at 27.2%, and their odds of winning their division sit at 20.0%. The good news for New Orleans is their schedule provides them with a path to saving their season, as they face the Panthers, Giants, Rams, Buccaneers, and Falcons the rest of the way. The bad news for New Orleans is they might be without Derek Carr for at least a week. New Orleans can't afford to slip up against Carolina or New York.

The Colts' win over the Titans sees them move up two spots to 13th. With the win, their odds of making the playoffs increased by 16.0 percentage points, the third-largest increase of the week, and now sits at 68.6%, per numberFire's models. The Colts are a middle-of-the-road team. Their offense ranks 18th and their defense ranks 14th, but they keep finding ways to win games. They have now won four in a row, albeit against a rather weak schedule, and have paths to the postseason as either a wild card or through the NFC South. The Jaguars remain favorites (66.6%) to win the division, but their loss on Monday night, combined with Trevor Lawrence's ankle injury, opened the door for both Indianapolis and Houston. The Colts have the schedule to walk through that door. The rest of the way they face the Bengals, Steelers, Falcons, Raiders, and Texans -- all winnable contests.

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

The Green Bay Packers pulled off their second monumental upset in a row, defeating the Chiefs 27-19 on Sunday Night Football. With the win, Green Bay's odds of making the playoffs increased by 16.1 percentage points and now sit at 75.3%, the 10th-best odds. The Packers have now won three in a row and four of their last five, earning wins at a crucial time during the difficult part of their schedule. From here on out, their schedule gets much, much easier. Over the final five weeks they face the Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, Vikings, and Bears -- oh my! Green Bay's offense now ranks 12th, per numberFire, and should continue to find success moving forward. After an uncertain start to the season, the future looks bright in Green Bay, and they have the look of a dangerous wild card team.

After weeks of pulling out wins against other contenders, the Eagles' schedule caught up to them in a big way in Week 13. They were thoroughly outplayed by the 49ers at home, ultimately losing 42-19. Philadelphia's defense, which now ranks 25th, per numberFire, has been a weakness all season, but their offense has made up for that. In Week 13, that was not the case. The Eagles' offense still ranks sixth, and their odds of winning the NFC East (92.7%) and winning the Super Bowl (17.5%) remain high -- but they need to regroup quickly. Their Week 14 showdown with Dallas is potentially the game of the season and will have a huge impact on the NFC East and the NFC as a whole. The good news for the Eagles is that, after Dallas, their schedule finally gets easier, with two games against the Giants, and one each against the Seahawks and Cardinals. Dallas' schedule, on the other hand, gets harder, with games against Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit. The Eagles can essentially clinch the division with a win this week, but even if they lose, they still have paths to doing so.

After their 27-19 loss to the Packers, one thing is for sure -- this is not the same Chiefs offense that we have grown accustomed to over the past four seasons. Over the past five weeks, the Chiefs are averaging just 19.4 points per game. Their defense had been making up for that, but that all fell apart against the Packers. So where does Kansas City go from here? Their offense still ranks seventh, per numberFire, and their defense ranks eighth, but there is a feeling of uncertainty with this team that hasn't been there in previous seasons. In Week 14, they face the Bills. After that, they face the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals, and Chargers the rest of the way. That is an excellent schedule to get things turned around on both sides of the ball, but it lacks a test against a true contender. The Chiefs' odds of earning the No. 1 Seed in the AFC sit at +210, per FanDuel Sportsbook, third-best behind Miami and Baltimore. The next time we see them face another contender could very well be on the road against either the Dolphins or Baltimore in the postseason.

The 49ers' win over the Eagles wasn't enough for them to pass the Cowboys for the top spot in the rankings, but it did close the gap. The margin between San Franciso and Dallas at the top decreased from 2.08 nERD to just 0.21 nERD. The two teams swap opponents this week, and depending on those results, San Francisco could easily return to the top. The two teams are very similar. The 49ers have a slight edge on offense -- they rank first while Dallas ranks second -- while the Cowboys hold the edge on defense with a third-place ranking compared to San Francisco in fourth. The gap between these two sides and the next-best team, the Ravens, is significant (2.56 nERD).

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